The Sleepers

The Dallas Mavericks have the No. 17 overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft and for the last few weeks they’ve been linked to a variety of names in recent mock drafts from the likes of ESPN’s Chad Ford, CBS’ Jeff Goodman, and the folks at DraftExpress and nbadraft.net.

Some of the names I’ve seen are Kendall Marshall, Arnett Moultrie, Terrence Ross, Dion Waiters, Jared Sullinger, Damian Lillard, and Terrence Jones. It’s hard to predict which of these players will be available, though, because they are all considered lottery-level talents. A few, like Waiters and Lillard, have seen their stock rise significantly and will definitely not be around at 17.

So I’m going to take a look at some draft sleepers that are more likely to be on the table at 17 and probably even later should we choose to move down in the draft.

Moe Harkless

There could be some debate over whether Harkless is truly a “sleeper.” Chad Ford has him going to the Houston Rockets with the 16th pick and several analysts have mentioned that he could be in play even in the lottery, but the majority of mock drafts have him going after 17, so I’ll include him.

He’s a one-and-done freshman out of St. John’s and the 3rd-best small forward in the draft behind Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Harrison Barnes. Harkless has excellent measurables for an NBA small forward — 6’9 in shoes with a 7’0 wingspan, 207 lbs, with room to add more muscle. He has good quickness and lateral agility on defense and anticipates passes well, which helped him force a lot of steals this year. He also was a very good rebounder in college, pulling down 8.6 a game. That number probably won’t translate exactly to the NBA because, at 6’9, he played more as a big man in college. But, in general, Harkless seems like a solid energy/high-motor/do-it-all kind of player that the Mavs could sorely use.

On top of that, the Mavs are very thin at small forward. Shawn Marion is getting older and less effective offensively, even though his individual defense this year was worthy of the All-Defense team. Vince Carter occasionally gave us good minutes at the 3, but he’s also quite ancient and incapable of doing the things Marion does. Kelenna Azubuike is a total question mark, and even if he manages to be a decent rotation player, he’s still a bit undersized (6’5) and more of a shooting guard.

Harkless’ offensive game is still a little raw and isn’t a great shooter, but he’s only 19 and shows a lot of potential to be a prototypical NBA small forward. DraftExpress’ NBA player comparison for him is Trevor Ariza, who isn’t a superstar by any means, but also is a pretty solid player that I would gladly take on the Mavs. Harkless reminds me a lot of Kawhi Leonard, who the Spurs stole in last year’s draft at a similar spot (with the 15th pick). Leonard shows stellar defensive skills and rebounding ability and the Spurs even taught him to make corner threes (after he shot an unimpressive sub-30% from three in college) like Bruce Bowen. By the end of the year, he was really contributing significantly and certainly proved himself to be one of the better picks in last year’s draft, with a lot of room to get even better. If Harkless can do some of the same things, this would be an excellent pick at a position of real need for Dallas.

By the way, I’m aware that John Hollinger’s draft rater isn’t very high on Harkless. Being a big stats guy, that unnerves me a little bit — but Hollinger himself says that the rater has been sketchier in predicting the success of one-and-done players, who haven’t accumulated as much predictive data as players who stay in college longer.

Royce White

White is probably the most unique player in the draft. He’s a 6’8, 260-lb power forward who was often utilized as a primary ball-handler and point-forward by his coach at Iowa State…and it wasn’t a disaster. No, in fact, White posted very good statistics, with 13.4 ppg, 9.3 rpg, and 5.0 apg in college last season and led his team to the NCAA tournament.

He moves very fluidly, dribbles very well, and shows outstanding court vision — all point-guard-ish qualities — but he can also do big-man things well, like rebounding the basketball and playing in the post. In that way, he’s elicited lots of comparisons to Boris Diaw, a similarly versatile NBA big man.

Several talent evaluators have said that White is easily a top-10 prospect in terms of talent. That may or may not be true, but he does have several weaknesses. His jump shot is pretty poor; he only attempted around 1 per game and connected on just 24% of those attempts, according to DraftExpress. He shoots barely 50% from the free-throw line. And, just like many other big men with his size and level of athleticism, he faces serious questions about how he will be able to guard NBA 4’s. White is pretty hefty and doesn’t have good lateral quickness or above-the-rim shotblocking and, even worse, his effort just isn’t there on the defensive end.

Many teams have also been concerned with some off-the-court issues regarding White. He pleaded guilty to theft at a mall in 2009, and then was involved in a laptop theft incident later on that caused him to leave the University of Minnesota and transfer to Iowa State. Legal problems aside, he’s also suffered from anxiety disorder and fear of flying, both of which can be pretty serious issues. Fortunately, he seems to have moved on from his previous incidents and sought medical help and treatment. He had a particularly impressive interview at the Draft Combine that definitely reassured a lot of general managers and teams that he’s a good character guy (and unique — he claimed he grew his beard to honor John Lennon).

In sum, White seems like a highly intriguing prospect for a contending team to take a chance on late in the first round. He doesn’t, however, seem like a good fit for Dallas, purely because we need taller big guys that can play defense, be athletic, and do the dirty work.

Jeffery Taylor

Taylor is a 6’7 small forward out of Vanderbilt projected to be taken in the late first round. Most mock drafts have him going to contending teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat.

He played all four years in college under Kevin Stallings and was a very productive player last year, posting averages of 16.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 49.3% FG, 42.3% three-point. These are obviously very good statistics, particularly in the shooting categories, which Taylor really improved upon in his senior year. He was pretty clearly Vanderbilt’s best all-around player (even though John Jenkins was their best scorer).

Taylor’s NBA role would seem to be that of a defensive stopper and complementary wing player, kind of like Thabo Sefolosha, Raja Bell, or Shane Battier. He’s got good height at 6’7 and elite athleticism, with a muscular 215-lb frame. The one knock on him, physically, is his mediocre 6’6 wingspan, but his lateral quickness and strength are both very good. Offensively, he’s a capable shooter and average ball-handler, but he should really earn his money on the defensive end.

Many contending teams have recently drafted instant defensive stoppers like Iman Shumpert and Avery Bradley, so it’s possible Taylor could bring some of the same things to the table for Dallas. More than most players in the draft, Taylor’s NBA-ready body and solid fundamentals and defense suggest that he can contribute immediately. He doesn’t have huge upside and 17 might be a little high to take him, but if the Mavs really want a guy who can step in and D up, Taylor’s the man.

Tony Wroten

Wroten is an uber-talented combo guard out of Washington (where he was teammates with Terrence Ross) who’s seen his stock fluctuate from mid-first round to early second round and everywhere in between.

Physically, he’s a freakishly impressive specimen at 6’5, 203 lbs with a 6’9 wingspan. He played point guard for the Huskies under Lorenzo Romar and averaged 16.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 3.7 apg last year. These seem like pretty good statistics, but he had more turnovers than assists (3.8 per game) and was a horrific shooter, hitting 16.1% from three and 58.3% from the free-throw line.

Wroten’s biggest strength is getting to the basket. He uses his strength and quickness very well to get past his defender and create shots, but often has trouble finishing with his right hand, something that will be exposed by NBA defenses. He also has displayed excellent court vision, with many of the analysts at the Draft Combine stating that he showed a flair for the highlight-reel passes in transition. Ultimately, though, he’s a pretty ball-dominant offensive player who still needs to learn a lot about offensive flow and how to run an offense as a point guard.

His jump-shooting, certainly, has to improve for him to get any playing time. His shooting mechanics are downright awful and need to be altered, but other players at his position have shown improvement in this area — like Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook.

Defensively, he has shown all the tools to be a successful defender of both point guards and shooting guards in the NBA. He has excellent lateral movement, the ability to intercept balls in passing lanes, and great length, so he’s not lacking from a physical standpoint. His production will likely depend on his own commitment to team defense.

The Mavs could really use an athletic, young stud in the backcourt, which is the main reason why there’s such a desire to land Deron Williams. Point guards like Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose are really dominating the position these days, and, physically, Wroten has a similar profile. Ultimately, though, I think Dallas should steer clear of Wroten. He has some truly impressive upside, but there are some big question marks — poor shooting, questionable attitude, ability to be a team player. It’s entirely possible that he could be the next Rajon Rondo in five years, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Darius Miller

Miller is a 6’7, 233-lb small forward who played as a sixth  man for John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats. He is the rare UK player to have stayed for all four years of his college career under Coach Cal and while he was often overlooked due to the ridiculous talent they’ve hauled in the last few years, he was a highly efficient and useful player during his time there.

He averaged 9.9 ppg, 2.8 rpg, and 2.1 apg on 47.4% shooting from the field and 37.6% from three — all in around 26 minutes a game, which is extremely respectable for a complementary college player on a team with talent like Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist, Lamb, Teague, and Jones. Miller’s role was primarily to space the floor with his shooting and fill in capably for the wing starters, and he executed it quite well, hitting 46% of his threes over Kentucky’s last 15 games of the season according to Synergy Sports Technology.

NBA scouts have always been interested in Miller due to his good size and weight, which mirror those of the average NBA small forward. His ceiling doesn’t appear to be very high because he’s mostly just a jump shooter with limited defensive skills and offensive variety, although he does possess decent athleticism. His main problem defensively seems to be getting beat off the dribble, which isn’t a good sign coming out of college.

On the other hand, his willingness to accept his limited role, improve his skills, and play well with better players at Kentucky suggests that he could work very well as an NBA role player. If Miller can maintain his good three-point shooting and at least become a serviceable defensive player, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be able to contribute as a backup wing player like a James Jones, Dorell Wright, etc.

Tyshawn Taylor

As any Jayhawks fan can tell you, Taylor is truly an enigma. Scouts have always recognized his great physical attributes — 6’4 height, 6’6.25 wingspan, great speed and quickness. But they are even more concerned with Taylor’s struggle to play mistake-free, efficient basketball on a consistent basis.

There were times this past year when he looked like a lottery talent, pulling off incredibly athletic drives and finishes in the paint and racing the floor in transition. And other times when he made every poor decision you could make…shooting, passing, and dribbling wildly out of control. There were plenty of times when Taylor registered near double-digit turnovers against good college teams and even though he has good statistics (16.6 ppg, 4.8 apg, 2.3 rpg) and really improved his outside shooting this year, he also had one of the highest usage rates in the nation.

It’s this dichotomy that has caused a lot of debate about Taylor’s worth to an NBA team, and which explains his late-first-round-at-best status.

I don’t see Taylor as an NBA starter at point guard or two-guard, but I think he’s plenty talented enough to provide scoring punch, dribble penetration, toughness, and defense off the bench, maybe as a Delonte-West-type player. Granted, one of Delonte’s best qualities is his reliable, controlled style of play, something which Taylor will no doubt have to work hard to grasp, if he ever does.

John Hollinger’s draft rater gives Taylor a pretty favorable rating relative to some of the other highly-touted perimeter players — his score of 10.19 is better than that of Austin Rivers, Damian Lillard, and Terrence Ross, all of whom are very likely lottery selections. I don’t know that I would predict he will be a better pro than all three, but to have advanced metrics on your side isn’t a bad thing — all in all, it seems like Taylor is slightly underrated given his talent level.

For the Mavericks, taking him at 17 would be a bit of a stretch — there will probably be a better player available that early. But if Dallas can trade up to the late first round or early second (or even if they stick at 55) and if Taylor’s available, I think he could prove to be a good pick down the road.

William Buford

Buford is a shooting guard who, over four seasons, had a highly successful college career for the Ohio State University. This year he was an important part of the Buckeyes’ Final Four run and core group, along with Jared Sullinger, Aaron Craft, and Deshaun Thomas — as you can see, not a slouch in the bunch.

It’s not uncommon for very good college players to be less highly regarded as NBA prospects, but I was a little surprised when researching to discover that Buford is, according to pretty much everyone, a second-rounder.

At Ohio State, Buford was a physical, versatile offensive scorer who managed to play with great aggression and moxie, but also unselfishness. He averaged 14.5 ppg, 5.0 rpg, and 2.7 apg on .520/.748/.345 shooting splits (and his shooting from the free throw line and from three were down from his junior year).

Scouts’ concerns about Buford seem to center around his lack of explosiveness and athleticism typical of starting guards in the NBA. He has good height and weight (6’5, 215) and has a big wingspan (around 6’10), but seemed to have a bit more difficulty scoring against better college perimeter defenders, something which projects to get worse at the NBA level.

That said, though, most analysts have noted that Buford is likely to, at minimum, become a quality NBA role player. Like most players who play for Thad Matta, he has good toughness and intangible qualities and has shown the ability to hold his own on the defensive end despite limited lateral quickness. DraftExpress’ conservative “best case” scenario of Buford is Gary Neal, who’s a similarly aggressive-yet-unselfish, good-sized shooting guard for the Spurs.

Maybe it’s just a gut feeling, but I think Buford would be a good second-round pick for Dallas, assuming they choose someone other than a shooting guard at 17. The Mavericks really need bigger perimeter players, as they’ve relied entirely too much on undersized guards in recent years (even though some have been quite good) — Terry, Barea, Beaubois, Jones, West, etc. Buford would fill that void, provide some spot-up shooting, and maybe even develop some more as a player over time.

Rise Up and Power Forward

Sorry this post is so late. Here’s my last position-by-position looks at the Mavs’ free agency options this summer. The only position left to address is power forward, which has been filled quite excellently by Dirk Nowitzki these last 14 years.

To look at what we need in a power forward, we should start by examining what we have. Nowitzki had, statistically, a poor season, primarily because he started off atrociously after the long lockout — and with no training camp to get his legs under him. His scoring numbers rose to his normal standards (23 to 25 ppg) by the end of the year, and he had a perfectly playoff-Dirk-quality series against the Thunder despite the team’s overall struggle to compete. I think we can expect Dirk to continue to score at around the same rate next year when he has time to prepare and come into training camp in shape.

One trend, however, that’s become more noticeable has been his declining rebounding numbers — down to 6.8 a game this year. Dirk has never been a particularly great rebounder, mostly relying on just pure size and athleticism (when he was a lot younger) to get the job done rather than good box-out technique or a nose for the ball. Unfortunately, the Mavs’ need of solid rebounding by our big men has really increased with the loss of Tyson Chandler. Brendan Haywood was decent — pulling down 6.2 in around 21 minutes a game — but his offensive ineptitude prevents him from playing significant minutes (or crunch-time minutes), and it’s probably the reason he’s likely to get amnestied this summer. Both Brandan Wright and Ian Mahinmi have pretty good per-36-minutes rebounding numbers (8.2 and 9.4) and possess good athleticism and willingness to crash the boards, but they also have their own offensive limitations and give up a lot in muscle mass and strength to opposing bigs. To resolve these issues, I think we need to target players that can rebound, play good defense, at least be accounted for on the offensive end, and ideally provide a certain tenacity on the floor.

Obviously we are not in the market for a starting power forward (so no Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan, or Elton Brand), so I will limit the conversation to guys that could be quality backups or could fill the role of “generally useful big man” — basically people who can be plugged in to play alongside Dirk at the 5, but should technically be classified as power forwards.

Here’s the breakdown.

Category 1 — Wily veterans seeking a contender

1. Boris Diaw. Diaw had an interesting year, going from the league-worst Charlotte Bobcats to the league-best San Antonio Spurs after he was waived in March. Few people remember, but Diaw was a really great all-around player for the 2006 Phoenix Suns. He has an extremely versatile game, with excellent vision and passing instincts for a big man, the ability to hit outside shots, and the newly-added girth (basically, he got really fat in Charlotte) to bang down low with opposing centers despite only being 6’8.

In fact, as I watched Diaw tearing it up with the Spurs in these playoffs alongside Duncan (even though he only played 20 minutes), I can’t help but think that he filled the role Lamar Odom could have filled for us had this awful season gone differently. Of course, Odom should have been (and is, when he actively tries) a far better player — taller, way more athletic, and much better off the dribble.

Anyways, back to Diaw. He’s done a great job in his role with the Spurs, but a lot of credit has to go to Gregg Popovich’s system — the excellent spacing of their three-point shooters, the penetration abilities of Ginobili and Parker, and the defense’s need to always account for Duncan all contribute to Diaw’s ability to make smart passes, get easy lay-ins, and even make moves off the dribble.

I think Diaw is pretty much a lock to stay in San Antonio. He’s clearly experienced a career resurgence there and would be foolish to think he could be as successful anywhere else. Plus, he’s good friends with fellow Frenchman Tony Parker. I”m not sure what he can expect to be paid, since the Spurs have a little over $48 million in salaries committed to next season and still have to lock up Tim Duncan, decide whether to pick up DeJuan Blair’s option, and then choose whether they want to re-sign Danny Green and Gary Neal.

2. Reggie Evans. Evans is a 32-year-old hustle player whose most famous NBA moment was grabbing Chris Kaman’s balls in a 2006 game. I, for one, believe the Mavs should make every push they can to sign both of these players merely for the entertainment value. Regardless, Evans has bounced around the NBA quite a bit, going from being a regular contributor in Seattle to spot duty off the bench in stops in Denver, Philly, and Toronto. This year, Evans really played a big role as the Clippers’ energetic rebounding big off the bench and played a part in their run to the second round, particularly in that thrilling 27-point comeback in Game 1 of the first round against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Evans is only 6’8, but he’s a terrific rebounder with a career average of 12.8 rebounds per 36 minutes. Despite his relative shortness, he uses great strength and good technique to box out for rebounds and, more importantly, he has a great motor and always hustles for loose balls. For similar reasons, Evans is a solid, physical defensive player. Unfortunately, on the offensive end, Evans is extremely limited. Having Chris Paul as their point guard has helped the Clippers in that regard since he has the ability to create some easy lay-up chances. For the most part, though, Evans is not a threat to score and, worse, he’s an atrocious free throw shooter, at only 50.7% this year.

Although Evans doesn’t really have a well-rounded game, the Mavs were frequently outrebounded this season and acquiring him would be a good step to solving their issues on the boards. Evans made about $1.25 million this year and might make more this go around, but probably not significantly. The Clippers’ financial situation is pretty unclear since they have $57 million committed but have decisions to make regarding a lot of their free agents: Nick Young, Randy Foye, Chauncey Billups, and Kenyon Martin.

3. Louis Amundson. If there was an award given to the NBA player who looks most like a Die-Hard villain, Amundson would have a great shot at it. Like many of the others in this category, he’s a guy who makes most of his money by providing rebounding, hard fouls, and energy off the bench, most famously as a member of the 2010 Phoenix Suns’ fantastic second unit that thrashed the Spurs.

He played 12.6 minutes a game for the Indiana Pacers this year sharing bench minutes with Tyler Hansbrough to back up David West. Amundson had decent numbers, averaging 10.2 points and 10.6 rebounds per 48 minutes. He has little to no offensive game other than from offensive rebounds and easy lay-ins created by others, not to mention his poor free throw shooting (around 43%).

If the Mavs have a few other good big men, though, Amundson isn’t a bad guy to have as a third or fourth big off the bench. He should be pretty cheap and he’s still 29, so he could be a solid bench player for the next few years.

4. Ronny Turiaf. Turiaf is a 6’10 big man who signed with the hated Miami Heat in late March after being waived by the Nuggets. He’s seen some increased minutes off the bench for Miami in the playoffs due to the absence of Chris Bosh, and gave them 3.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in 17 regular season games.

I think Turiaf is easily the worst player in this category. Despite his good size and build, he’s not a particularly good rebounder and doesn’t offer anything offensively. If anything, his statistics are inflated from benefiting from playing with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Turiaf will almost certainly return to Miami as he has a player option worth $1.2 million he can pick up.

5. Kenyon Martin. Martin, the 34-year-old former longtime Nets forward, signed with the L.A. Clippers (yes, people actually are choosing to sign with the Clippers these days) in early February for the $2.5 million mini mid-level exception. K-Mart primarily backed up Blake Griffin, logging around 22 minutes a game.

While he’s no longer an elite talent like he was in New Jersey, he can still be useful as a multifaceted defender, with the muscle and height to play traditional, physical power forwards, but also the lateral quickness and length to bother small forwards and two-guards. In fact, Martin played a lot of important defensive crunch-time minutes against the Grizzlies and was able to switch on pick-and-rolls and really bother Rudy Gay on his jump shots.

His offensive numbers were pretty abysmal this year (5.2 points and 4.3 rebounds and 37% free throw shooting), but some of that can be attributed to his reduced role and the Clippers’ abundance of other shooters. In any case, Martin wouldn’t be expected to contribute all that much offensively wherever he goes.

I don’t see Dallas being that interested. Martin is likely to cost more than other players with similar production simply because of his name and the fact that the Clippers had a good year, and Cuban’s bad blood with him (due to a 2009 confrontation with his mother) all but rules it out.

6. Antawn Jamison. Jamison, the 2004 Sixth Man of the Year for the Mavs, has spent the last 8 seasons playing for mostly laughingstock teams in Washington and Cleveland. Despite that, his numbers have always remained consistently good, including this year — 17.2 ppg and 6.3 rpg.

Those numbers are pretty misleading, though. Both the Wizards and Cavs the last few years have been largely devoid of talent and Jamison has gotten more touches. The last two seasons, particularly, his efficiency has declined alarmingly — 42.7% and 40.3% from the field.

Regardless, I still think Jamison is probably the best offensive player in this category (maybe debatable between him and Diaw). He has very good length, a very fast second jump (which helps him get offensive rebounds), and the ability to make a lot of unorthodox shots in the paint, a lot like Shawn Marion.

Jamison’s getting older (he’s 35 now) and coming off a huge contract that paid him $15.1 million this year. I would expect him to want to sign with a contender for the mid-level exception or maybe less. If he’s cheap enough, I think Dallas would be interested (and maybe he would be too) because although he’s aging, he’s a known quantity, a consummate professional, and still has some game left. Other good teams (like the Spurs) have had great success with integrating aging big men into their lineup.

Category 2 — Quality players in their prime looking for a contract

1. Brandon Bass. This former Mav played big minutes (around 31.5) for the Boston Celtics this year, mainly because of their pathetic lack of frontcourt players not named Kevin Garnett. Celtics GM Danny Ainge managed to trade Glen Davis for Bass straight-up, which is kind of a coup. Bass is a strong, capable defender and he has a knock-down mid-range jump shot. He isn’t a guy you can throw the ball to in the post, but he’s at least able to finish strong when he’s set up to do so. Bass also isn’t that great of a rebounder, which helps to explain why the Celtics were historically bad in that department this year.

Overall, he’s a pretty solid player who has improved since he left Dallas. Unfortunately, because of the increased load he shouldered for the C’s this year (and his higher numbers), he’s likely to have more value this summer. Bass has a $4.3 million player option he can pick up, but I see him declining that and testing the open market. Boston could still be interested in signing him because they have plenty of cap space and are looking to rebuild around younger players.

2. Kris Humphries. The Mavs might be tired of reality TV stars after how Lamar Odom turned out, but Humphries, just 3 seasons after leaving Dallas, has developed into a very solid young power forward. (Hmm… is there a trend here? Bass? Humphries? Dallas? Not saying we don’t develop players, but…).

Despite the Kardashian drama that’s surrounded him the last year, Humphries can play some ball. He’s really broken out as a terrific rebounder and legit 10-10 guy every night for the last couple years. He’s also only 27, so he can still be a big piece for a team for quite a while.

He’s not really a fit for Dallas — he made $8 million this year as a starter, but that’s not happening on the Mavs. Some team will likely throw him enough money to be a starter (if they’re dumb enough, Brooklyn) and he’ll eventually be known only as the guy who used to bang Kanye West’s wife.

3. Carl Landry. Landry spent the past year playing 25 minutes a game for the New Orleans Hornets, who acquired him in a trade with the Sacramento Kings in 2011. Similar to Bass, he’s an undersized (6’9) but well-built big with average rebounding ability. Landry’s main value is his scoring ability — he can shoot pretty well, has some very good post skills, and draws fouls very well in the paint (and converts the free throws too — knocking them down at a a near-80% clip).

It’s easy to fall in love with Landry’s per-36 numbers, which looked great this year: 18.4 ppg, 50.3% from the field, and 7.7 rpg. Unfortunately, he doesn’t play 36 minutes a game and will probably be very highly paid, ruling out the Mavs.

4. Ryan Anderson. Whenever a tall white guy can shoot the 3-ball well, he is immediately said to be “a poor man’s Dirk Nowitzki.” Anderson is this breed of power forward. He’s shouldered a much bigger scoring load for the Orlando Magic the past couple years, even winning the league’s Most Improved Player Award this year on 16.1 ppg and 7.7. rpg (with shooting splits of .439/.393/.877).

He didn’t really deserve to win MIP, mainly because his per-36 numbers are nearly identical to his 2010-11 statistics (indicating that his increased production was just due to more minutes), but he’s nevertheless a very good shooter and arguably the Magic’s second-best player.

Still, the majority of Anderson’s offense comes due to the open shots generated by Dwight Howard’s paint presence. When Howard doesn’t play (like in the playoffs against Indiana), most open looks in the offense disappear and Anderson can’t simply be a spot-up shooter, which is really what he does. In that sense, a stretch 4 like Anderson (and maybe Dirk in the future) is a perfect fit next to Howard in terms of providing offensive balance and provides more value for the Magic than other teams. It’s likely that Anderson will be overpaid for his good numbers this summer by another team, but that’s okay — we already have the rich man’s Dirk Nowitzki.

5. Ersan Ilyasova. The man who deserved Most Improved this year. Ilyasova saw pretty staggering statistical improvement in nearly every per-36-minute category this year — 13.7 to 17.0 in points, 8.7 to 11.5 in boards, 29.8% to 45.5% from three. The only area he did worse was at the free throw line, where he still shot 78%.

His game is pretty similar to Anderson’s since they’re both great long-range shooters, but Ilyasova is a much better rebounder and off-the-ball player. Not to mention, there’s no player on the Milwaukee Bucks with anything remotely close to Dwight Howard’s talent level.

He should be in line for a pretty good payday this summer, but obviously not from Dallas.

Category 3 — Talented guys with something to prove

1. Michael Beasley. For a former No. 2 pick, Beasley has had an interesting career to say the least. He was an absolute stud scorer in college, putting up 26.2 ppg and 12.4 rpg and sweeping a variety of “best freshman”-type awards at Kansas State. Beasley hasn’t been nearly as impactful a player in the pros, but through all his different struggles and fluctuating team situations, his talent for scoring has persisted. He’s consistently shot around 45% from the field for his career and 37% from three the last couple of years, and despite only playing 23 minutes a game this season, his per-36 scoring average was around 18, which isn’t far from his career average of 19.5.

He’s an undersized (listed at 6’9, but more like 6’7) power forward who’s had some trouble playing against the larger, more athletic big men in the NBA. As a result, his game has become more perimeter-oriented and his role has diminished, especially with the rise of Kevin Love as an All-NBA First-Team player and the Wolves’ general depth at forward. I’m not convinced that Beasley wouldn’t be better-suited to being an NBA small forward but, regardless of position, he’s got to consistently show high-level effort and commitment to defense — things that he has neglected thus far in his career.

Unfortunately, Beasley’s also had a lot of off-the-court issues, including several marijuana incidents. This baggage could definitely deter a lot of teams from pursuing him and could cost him some money, but Beasley will easily be a hot commodity this summer. He’s simply too young (only 23) and too talented to not get another shot as a starter.

He has expressed interest in returning to Minnesota, but he has a $8.172 million qualifying offer that I seriously doubt Minnesota wants to pay. Ultimately, I expect him to get a mid-level exception-type offer to be a starter somewhere. I don’t expect the Mavs to get involved, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they did either — Beasley could represent the classic low-risk-high-reward move that Mark Cuban loves, especially as a cheap option to put another potential playmaker in the fold if Deron Williams signs with Dallas.

2. J.J. Hickson. Hickson is most known for being a part of the Cleveland team that LeBron James left out in the cold a few years ago. He’s always been known as a physically talented athlete (with his 6-9, 240 lb frame and very good athleticism), but pretty raw basketball player — mostly just good at throwing down dunks.

The Cavaliers traded Hickson to the Kings for Omri Casspi in 2011, so he played the bulk of this season for Sacramento. Unfortunately, he was a train wreck — he went from 13.8 ppg and 8.7 rpg on 45.8% shooting to 4.7 ppg and 5.1 rpg on 37% shooting. Some of this is just due to decreased minutes, but he was never comfortable and couldn’t carve out a productive role.

The Kings understandably waived him in March and he was claimed off waivers by the Blazers. In Portland, he became a totally different player, playing 19 games for them (starting 10) and posting these stats — 15.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 54.3% shooting. That’s a pretty impressive turnaround, even though LaMarcus Aldridge’s injury no doubt gave him more of a chance to pick up the slack offensively.

Hickson has a $3.4 million qualifying offer. I think basketball-wise Portland would like to keep him since he’s only 23 and has shown some promise in their system. Financially, though, it’s murky — the Blazers’ highest priority is re-signing Nicolas Batum, who is sure to get a big raise. They will have some cap space to work with but exactly how much isn’t clear — Jamal Crawford and Shawne Williams both have player options to consider.

I think Dallas would be totally out of the picture here. Hickson seems to be a clone of Ian Mahinmi, only shorter.

3. Jason Thompson. Nobody really knows what goes on in Sacramento anymore. I saw a Kings game this year and even I couldn’t tell you Thompson plays for them. Side note: That game was the Kings’ dreadful blowout of the Mavs on their Grateful Dead Tribute Night (seriously), with Tyreke Evans and others raining 3’s, Drake in attendance, and Bill Walton gleefully commenting about how great it was to…actually I don’t remember what he thought was so great — he was rather incoherent.

Anyways, Thompson. He was a pretty reliable contributor for the Kings this season, logging around 25 minutes a night and registering a 9.1-6.9 for them on .535 shooting. He doesn’t seem like a starting-caliber player by any stretch, but he provides adequate interior scoring, post defense, and rebounding, and he’s very tall at 6-11. I think he’s a player who could give a good team around 20 quality minutes a night.

His qualifying offer is around $4.1 million and the Kings have expressed some interest in re-signing him. That’s probably too much, but they’re the Kings so they’ll pay it.

Category 4 — Intriguing Prospects/Younglings

1. Lavoy Allen. Allen is a 23-year-old rookie who just finished up his first year with the Sixers. He only logged around 15 minutes a game, I couldn’t help but think he looked quite capable and mature for a young player, especially when he wasn’t at all fazed by Kevin Garnett’s verbal abuse in their second-round series with Boston.

He doesn’t contribute much at all offensively at this stage, but he has good per-36 rebounding numbers (9.9) and can shoot free throws decently (.786).

Allen’s got a qualifying offer of a little over $900,000, which I think the Sixers will easily match. He seemed to mesh well with their young players (like Holiday, Turner, Young, etc.) and other teams probably won’t be that interested.

2. Jordan Hill. Hill is a 6-10 forward/center for the Lakers who actually earned a pretty consistent role off the bench towards the end of the year. He was the 8th pick in the 2009 draft (by the Knicks) and never really met the expectations that come with that lofty a pick (like Brandan Wright).

Even so, Hill — along with Devin Ebanks — really broke out in that famous game against the Oklahoma City Thunder (yes, the one where Ron Artest could have killed James Harden). Hill brought a ton of energy, hustle, and rebounding to the Lakers and helped lead them to a huge comeback in that game.

Being a former lottery pick, Hill made around $2.9 million this year and has a qualifying offer of $3.63 million. The Lakers are in pretty bad cap trouble, though, so I expect them to let him walk. There will definitely be some suitors — Hill’s per-36 numbers are 14.5 points and 13.6 rebounds.

Category 5 — Brian Cardinal

1. Brian Cardinal. Sadly, I think the Cardinal era in Dallas is over. The guy didn’t make many of his threes this year and he’s lost his once-elite athleticism (sarcasm) so there’s no reason to waste a roster spot on him. It was good while it lasted though.

Kareem’s Poor Example

The great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar occasionally contributes stories to ESPN.com and he wrote a piece yesterday discussing the overall decline in scoring this postseason, and he had something interesting to say about our guy Dirk Nowitzki. (Here’s the link — http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2012/story/_/id/8007685/nba-playoff-scoring-2012-vs-scoring-1985.)

In the article, Kareem basically lends his opinion that the increasingly common trend of players jumping to the NBA early has caused diminished skill development and mental maturity, both of which have somehow contributed to this year’s low point totals (a pretty bad causal conclusion given that the one-and-done rule has been in place several years now and we never freaked out about lower scoring).

And then, bam. To persuade the reader, he offers this perfect example of an underachieving player who could have used more college development: Dirk Nowitzki.

A young man can get into the NBA just because he has potential, but if that potential does not manifest itself, he will be traded or let go by a cost-conscious director of personnel. Even those players who are able to make it past the first hurdle don’t always play up to their potential. A great example is Dirk Nowitzki. As a 7-footer, he had the opportunity to play college ball in America, but people close to the situation say Dirk avoided playing U.S. college ball because he would be called on to defend and rebound and play with the big guys. Dirk has been an exceptional offensive player, but his NBA career stats show that he has limited skills as a defender, shot-blocker and rebounder. We’ll never know how good he could have been had he spent more time rounding out his skill set with a top college coach.

I have great respect for Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. He was easily a top 3 center to ever play (along with Russell and Chamberlain) and had one of the five or so greatest basketball careers ever. He’s also always struck me as an eloquent and intelligent commentator on the game in several of his writings.

But there’s no doubt about it — he’s horrendously wrong with this example.

Number one, it’s pretty ridiculous that anyone could make a point regarding underachieving players and then offer Dirk Nowitzki as their “great example” of one. The man has career averages of 22.9/8.3/2.6 with .475/.380/.878 shooting splits. He is one of only 4 players to ever average 25 points and 10 rebounds for his playoff career. He’s also the only player in NBA history to have four straight games with 30 points and 15 rebounds apart from…Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Beyond the statistics, though, he’s worked as hard as anyone to improve his skill set, make himself tougher, and maintain consistency as “the man” for the Mavs over his 14-year First-Ballot Hall-of-Fame career. More than anything, Nowitzki’s game is as unique and recognizable as that of any player ever. He, along with Kevin Garnett, essentially redefined the power forward position by introducing the notion of a primarily perimeter-based, jump-shooting big man. In fact, Dirk’s fallaway jump shot has become so iconic now that it’s lauded as one of the most unstoppable shots ever — along with…Kareem’s sky hook.

To his credit, Kareem does praise Dirk for being an “exceptional offensive player,” a title not even the most stubborn Spurs fan could refute. But just acknowledging that in an attempt to downplay Nowitzki’s other skills undersells his overall value to his team. Just like a great team is more than the sum of its parts, I’d argue that an individual player is more than his assortment of skills. I’ll give my own example: Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is, like Dirk, an otherworldly offensive talent — many have said he’s the best in the game. His raw career per-game averages are superior to Dirk’s in most categories — points, assists, steals — and even in rebounding, he’s averaged 6.3 a game, a pretty high figure for a small forward. He’s also, like Dirk, a below-average defensive player. But Dirk’s teams, year in and year out, have been pretty successful 50 and 60-win teams that have made the Conference Finals thrice and the NBA Finals twice. Anthony’s teams, on the other hand, have won less in the regular season and have only made it out of the first round once despite being composed of similarly talented players.

So what’s the difference between Anthony and Nowitzki? His overall value to his team. Their statistical totals are pretty comparable, but Nowitzki gets his points more efficiently (shoots less and better), initiates good offense for his teammates, and has, over the past few years, shown a real commitment to good team defense. This value is obvious to anyone who has watched the Mavs play and really bears out in their abysmal win-loss record when he sits. So, getting back to the main point, characterizing Nowitzki as some scoring maestro who can’t contribute in other ways is just false.

Another thing Kareem misses on, in my opinion, is the idea that Dirk’s rebounding and defensive deficiencies are due to a lack of coaching earlier in his career. Dirk, for a seven-footer, has never been a great rebounder — he’s never even averaged more than 10 a game in the regular season, a feat which his peers, Duncan and Garnett, have routinely accomplished. Any basketball coach will tell you rebounding is about three things — effort, anticipation, and athleticism.  I hate to tell you, but Dirk is 0 for 3 (for whatever reason, I’ve never gotten the sense, especially in recent years, that Dirk has a ravenous hunger to crash the boards). As far as defense, Dirk has pretty bad physical tools — poor lateral quickness, not much vertical leap, and only decent length and bulk to bang down low. In spite of all that, he’s improved noticeably in recent years by executing the proper rotations, using the length he has, and improving his hands — I noticed several deflections and steals he made in last year’s playoffs that he would never have managed earlier in his career. These are changes to his game that have slowly developed over several years under Rick Carlisle’s coaching and team defensive principles — basically, I have a hard time believing Dirk could have been a superior defender merely if he “rounded out his skill set with a top college coach” as Kareem suggests.

The last problem I have is Kareem’s depiction of Dirk as a talented 19-year-old player who was scared of playing college basketball because “he would be called on to defend and rebound and play with the big guys.” This is classic Euro-stereotyping bullshit and a double standard — when high school players like Garnett and Kobe Bryant go pro, it’s justified because they want to make money and prove their superior talents on the biggest stage. But when a European like Nowitzki goes pro, he’s just scared. As annoying and tired a stereotype that is, though, I’m even more leery of Kareem’s “people close to the situation.” After all, Kareem, with his unimpeachable journalistic credibility and experience, has sources close to every situation, including ones that could tell him exactly what went through Dirk’s mind as he pondered whether to play college ball or jump to the NBA…right.

Well, that was a long rant, but I just felt I had to dissect the pure lunacy of that paragraph.

I’ll leave you with one simple sentiment: I will never spend sleepless nights wondering how good Dirk Nowitzki “could have been.” The man has carved out a legendary career and done as much to maximize his potential as any player I’ve ever seen. He’s one of the best five power forwards ever and one of the fifteen or twenty greatest players ever.

And that’s good enough for me.

Sullinger? Count Me In

Perusing through the mock drafts every now and then has become a sort of hobby of mine, and I noticed this morning that nbadraft.net has us drafting Jared Sullinger of The Ohio State University with the 17th pick.

This is a pretty surprising projection. For one thing, it was only last year that Sullinger was viewed as a consensus top-5 pick, with some mocks projecting him to go in the top 2. This year, he has slid to mid-to-late lottery status in most mocks, with the chance of being a late-teens pick, as in this case. (Part of this can be explained by the relative weakness of the 2011 draft. By my count, only seven players in the 2011 class had above-average rookie years — Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, Iman Shumpert, Kenneth Faried, Marshon Brooks, Chandler Parsons, and Isaiah Thomas.)

For a top-notch college player with great production and pedigree and no character issues, this is a pretty dramatic slide that hasn’t been thoroughly explained. So let’s examine the facts.

Sullinger returned to Ohio State in 2011 to come back and try to achieve his stated goal of winning a national championship. In his sophomore season, his production was basically the same as the year before — 17.5 ppg and 9.3 rpg compared to 17.2 ppg and 10.2 rpg. His team made it all the way to the Final Four and lost to Kansas in a close game in which Thomas Robinson and the Jayhawks rallied from 9 down at halftime. All in all, it was a really successful year for Sullinger from both an individual and team standpoint.

But Sullinger’s return to school also hurt him. College basketball in the one-and-done era works like this — there are at most a couple alpha-dog players every year that get all the press, recent examples from the past few years being JJ Redick, Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Michael Beasley, Tyler Hansbrough, Stephen Curry, John Wall, Kemba Walker, and Anthony Davis. Sullinger firmly occupied that spotlight in 2010, with seemingly everyone praising his skilled low-post game, impressive maturity for a freshman, and general dominance of games (and with Dickie V slobbering over his ability to use his “big backside” to move people around in the paint).

But Sullinger’s return changed all that — he wasn’t new enough or sexy enough to still draw headlines. The national attention shifted away from him and toward other prospects, and although he still was an AP All-American, he wasn’t often mentioned alongside Anthony Davis and Thomas Robinson in the discussion for major national awards.

And with the increased time to watch him play against his peers, basketball analysts and draftniks began to break down more flaws in his game, some of which they didn’t notice his freshman year or merely overlooked due to his being a freshman then. In particular, critics have consistently outlined two things that could constrain his NBA potential:

1. He is short for an NBA center so he could struggle against lengthier players in the NBA.

2. He has average athleticism and quickness, both of which are important in playing good team defense as a big man.

The first point is a valid concern because while Sullinger is a healthy 280 lbs, he stands only 6’10 in shoes. He has had some trouble with getting his shot blocked by taller players, which is a problem. However, he has above average length (a 7’1 wingspan) despite his height and he’s always exhibited great smarts and savvy in using his strength and moves to his advantage in the post. He’s also added a reliable face-up game and a solid 15-fo0t jump shot that is practically a necessity for scoring bigs in today’s NBA.

As to the second question, it’s undeniable that Sullinger isn’t Tyson Chandler. He plays a very “old-man” type of game and is a very capable post defender, but obviously doesn’t move that fast. Ultimately, though, there aren’t many players in the league that can — that’s why the Kevin Garnetts and Dwight Howards of the world are so rare. Sullinger seems to play with intelligence and desire on the defensive end, and that should enable him to grow into a decent team defender despite his physical limitations.

DraftExpress, a private scouting and pre-draft analysis website, sums up my feelings perfectly in this quote from their profile of Sullinger:

To Sullinger’s credit, there is already a model in the NBA for players in his mold (such as Kevin Love, Luis Scola, or Paul Millsap) who can be incredibly effective with similar limitations, so it may not be prudent to overanalyze his flaws and ignore his tremendous productivity.

Basically, I think that as analysts have focused more on the one-and-dones and “sleepers” of this draft, they’ve tended to nitpick and poke at Sullinger’s game while forgetting how damn good he’s been. He was hands down the most physical, skilled, and tough-to-stop low-post player in the country the last two years, bar none. He’s a great rebounder in spite of his ground-based game, a pretty good passer with great hands and low turnover rates, and a smart player who projects great effort and intangibles.

I think he should be a lottery pick and it would be an absolute steal if the Mavs could take him at 17. We really have lacked a strong low-post scoring presence since Erick Dampier left (joking) and have become an increasingly jump-shot-dependent team, so this would help with our balance. Additionally, I think Sullinger has shown in the past that he’s a mature guy and a winner who’s truly committed to the team (he made the choice to go back to college on his own and then shed 20 pounds this season to improve his mobility), both of which suggest he would be able to contribute immediately for Dallas.

Admittedly, a starting lineup of Dirk Nowitzki at PF and Jared Sullinger at C would lack some things defensively. It would, then, be important for us to get a good defensive backup (like Omer Asik or someone) that could step in at times. Ultimately, though, I would easily prefer this type of situation to what we had with the three-headed-monster this year.

Sullinger, more than most other prospects (and certainly most big men) this year, seems to be a known quantity. Assuming Dallas wants to fill a need at center — or even if they want to take the “best player available” approach — if Sully’s still on the board at 17, we should take him and run.

New Point Guard on the Radar

I wrote my point guard summer shopping list for the Mavs a few weeks ago. Turns out we can add one more name to that list: Kyle Lowry.

Here’s a breakdown of the situation:

The Rockets guard told the Houston Chronicle on Friday that he does not think he and Goran Dragic will both return next season. And he is especially unlikely to play for Houston if Kevin McHale returns as coach.

“I don’t think so,” Lowry told the newspaper about returning to play for McHale. “I honestly think it would be tough. Things have to be addressed. The situation would have to be addressed.

“If things aren’t addressed coaching-wise, I guess I have to be moved.”

Now, make no mistake, this isn’t a sure sign the Rockets are looking to move Lowry. Dragic is an unrestricted free agent this summer, and despite Houston’s claims they want to re-sign him, he will probably be able to receive offers from $7 to $10 million a year to play as a starter.

Lowry, however, only made $5,750,000 this year and is due to receive $5,750,000 and $6,210,000 the next two seasons (until summer of 2014). Given his range of skills and consistent production, this is a hell of a bargain, and one that Houston would no doubt be very reluctant to part with.

As for his issues with McHale, I wouldn’t read too much into this. Player-coach disputes happen quite often and even though Lowry seems adamant, it’s possible a few sit-down chats with Rockets management and McHale could yield a quick resolution.

If for some reason, Houston does decide to trade Lowry, he would automatically jump to my No. 2 spot on the point guard shopping list behind Deron Williams. Lowry doesn’t receive that much attention when we discuss point guards, mainly because he plays in the Western Conference (where guys like Parker, Westbrook, Paul, and Nash all steal the All-Star game slots) and the Rockets have struggled to compete the last few years.

Regardless, he is a top-10 point guard in the game (at a time when the depth at this position is truly historical) and you could conceivably rank him as high as eighth — behind only Paul, Williams, Westbrook, Rondo, Rose, Parker, and Nash. Lowry brings elite quickness and speed, good court vision, and gritty perimeter defense to the table. He’s quite limited in size (only 6’0), which hurts him defensively, but he has great athleticism and can play above the rim on offense. He has struggled to shoot well from the field during his career (only 40.9% this year, and some sub-40% seasons in the past), but he has improved his three-point shooting greatly the last two seasons (37.6% and 37.4%) and can hit his free throws at around an 80% clip. He’s also a very good rebounder considering his size, pulling down 4.6 a game this season. Lowry’s assist numbers aren’t staggering (6.6 per game), but they’re not bad either, and he’s shown great strides ever year. Houston’s system wasn’t really dependent on him dominating the ball and making all the decisions and, even then, he averaged 7.4 assists per 36 minutes (he only averaged 32 minutes a game this year), not a bad number considering the lack of really great scoring options for the Rockets.

If Dallas strikes out on Deron Williams and Lowry’s on the market, I think a phone call to Daryl Morey is a no-brainer. Lowry is just 26 and appears to be entering his prime, and he’s quite underpaid on his current contract that extends two more seasons.

I’m honestly not sure how the Mavs could possibly pull off this trade, but it’s worth a shot. Houston has no need for cap relief because they only have around $30 million committed in salaries to next year, so the Lamar Odom contract doesn’t seem to be all that useful. Shawn Marion wouldn’t interest them either because he’s 34and offensively limited and they have a good tandem of young SFs in Chandler Parsons (an All-Rookie selection this year) and Chase Budinger who each make less than a million dollars (with Parsons locked up until 2015). We would probably have to involve a team that does need cap relief to pull off a multi-team trade and throw in a lot of sweeteners (Roddy Beaubois, maybe Brandan Wright, draft picks), not to mention the possibility of Houston asking us to take on Luis Scola’s monster contract ($8,591,793, $9,408,207, $10,224,622, and $11,041,037 over the next 4 years). Ouch.

In the end, it seems highly unlikely we can get Kyle Lowry, but he’s a very good, if not elite, point guard so it’s definitely worth a look from Mark Cuban and Donnie Nelson. In my opinion, getting him at this stage in his career would clearly be a better move for Dallas than signing Steve Nash (at 39) or Goran Dragic (who would cost more and hasn’t proven as much).

A Small Forward Look

This is my next post in the series on the Mavs’ free agent options in 2012. I’ve already covered centers, point guards, and shooting guards, so this time I’ll be going over our options at small forward.

In the 2011-12 season, the Mavs started Shawn Marion at small forward, with Vince Carter and Lamar Odom getting spot minutes there when Marion sat down. While Marion had an exceptional year defensively, including several lock-down efforts against all-world offensive talents like Kobe Bryant and Kevin Durant, and rebounded more than he ever has in Dallas (7.4 a game), he struggled mightily on offense, managing only 10.6 points-per-game on 44.6% shooting, some of the lowest numbers of his career. The usual array of post hooks, bankers, and peculiar flip shots didn’t seem to be nearly as effective for Marion as they were in 2011, and his near-inability to make outside jump shots didn’t help either.

The unrelenting 66-game schedule, combined with the loss of solid perimeter defender DeShawn Stevenson, undoubtedly tired him greatly. Due to Jason Kidd’s injuries and frequent DNP’s, Marion was often asked to check point guards and even some power forwards, leaving him with little spare energy to expend offensively — a really bad situation for a player who relies heavily on putbacks, offensive rebounds, and physical post play, all of which require a lot of energy.

Carter had a few notable performances at small forward (usually alongside a backcourt some combination of West/Kidd/Terry). This lineup helped offensive floor spacing because Carter is a good jump shooter, but it was prone to defensive mismatches at the 2 and 3 slots since Carter is not much of a defender and Delonte West is undersized for a 2-guard, and hence not in a good position to check elite scorers like Bryant and Durant. Odom, on the other hand, was pretty much hopeless regardless of what position he played. He usually received some minutes at small forward alongside Dirk Nowitzki, but never appeared comfortable (in fairness, he had only rarely played SF for the Lakers — usually playing the 4 alongside Bynum or Gasol) or productive.

All in all, the Mavs got decent production out of the small forward slot with Marion and Carter, and it doesn’t appear to be nearly as big a need as point guard or center, or even shooting guard. But if the Mavs choose to move Shawn Marion in a trade this summer — a very real possibility — then it suddenly becomes pretty important.

Here’s a look at the small forwards available on the open market.

Tier 1 — Above-average to quality starter

1. Nicolas Batum. Batum is unquestionably the most coveted free agent small forward on the market, and it’s pretty clear why. He’s a very long and athletic player who has shown great year-by-year improvement in his 4 seasons along with an extremely versatile skill set.

Batum has the ability to drive and slash to the hoop, hit jump shots at a good clip (and he’s 45% from the field), make three-pointers (around 39%), and utilize his length to play good team defense. On top of all that, he’s only 23 and appears to have a lot more room to mature as a player.

In terms of money, I expect Batum to command around $8-$10 million. That almost certainly puts him out of the Mavs’ price range if Deron Williams is Plan A. Batum is a restricted free agent, and his agent has put out some pretty strong statements about his impending free agency, even saying, “The first good offer we get, we’re going with it. We’re not waiting for anything.” That doesn’t sound very good for the Blazers’ prospects of retaining him since they would only have 72 hours to match any offer sheet (as per the new CBA rules) and they have a plethora of decisions to make on how to improve their team this summer.

Batum can be a very good starter on a great team, but I’m not sure he will ever ascend to an All-Star level talent, so I would expect the Mavs to pass here and leave it to some other team to overpay him.

2. Gerald Wallace. Wallace is a soon-to-be-30 swingman who is good for around 13-16 points and 6-8 rebounds a game. He’s known as a hard-nosed, reliable, and professional player — a rep that’s backed up by his relatively consistent production despite a few changes in scenery. He was most recently dealt to the now-Brooklyn Nets for Shawne Williams, Mehmet Okur, and a top-3 protected lottery pick, presumably in a misguided attempt to show Deron Williams they’re serious about improving the team in the short-term.

Wallace has reached his ceiling a few years ago, but he’s still physically strong, a very solid perimeter defender (garnering First-Team All-Defense honors in 2010), and a good offensive player — he can slash well and finish in the paint, and has historically shot well from the field (47.3% for his career).

This summer, Wallace has a chance to opt into the last year of his deal for $9.5 million if he notifies the Nets by June 13. It’s widely expected that he will decline this option and become an unrestricted free agent (due to the financial security of a long-term deal), but Nets GM Billy King has still expressed interest in re-signing Wallace this summer to a multi-year deal. King could technically try and extend Wallace right now for two more years, but only at $9.5 million per year, so Wallace would likely wait and try for a better offer in free agency.

To me, this is kind of hilarious. The Nets made the absolutely boneheaded move of trading away their lottery pick (they have exactly a 25.2% chance of retaining it) and now are forced to probably overpay Wallace this summer so it doesn’t look like they did that for nothing (unless David Stern rigs the lottery and gives them Anthony Davis, which is another story). Wallace is a solid player, but he’s not worth a top-3 pick, especially when that could be one of their biggest assets in trading for Dwight Howard. It’s pretty doubtful Wallace will be worth his next contract and I’m not sure he’s the type of player that would sway Deron Williams into re-signing, but maybe Prokhorov and Billy King know more than I do. Again — doubtful.

Tier 2 — Wild Card

Jeff Green. I originally had felt Green should be in Tier 1, but his season-ending aortic aneurysm has led me to wonder about what kind of player he’ll be when he gets back. Even before that happened, though, Green was adjusting to a bench role with the Celtics, averaging around 23 minutes when he had seen 37 in Oklahoma City. His totals understandably went down, but his per-48-minutes statistics didn’t really waver.

His numbers look pretty good. In OKC he averaged around 15 points on 44% shooting with 5.5 rebounds. But I still think he tends to get a little overrated due to his prototypical size and athleticism and mere association with Durant and Westbrook on that upstart Thunder team. Green is certainly not average-quality, but he appears to lack a signature skill or role to fill on a really good team.

The Thunder, at the time of his trade to Boston, were choosing between sending him or James Harden to the Celtics. They smartly, of course, chose to keep Harden, but at the time it was a legitimate debate. Since then, Harden has progressed into an elite shooting guard and propelled the Thunder to a second-straight Western Conference Finals, while Green (through no fault of his own, really) just hasn’t improved as a player, even when he was healthy.

Green will be an unrestricted free agent this summer because the Celtics withdrew his qualifying offer and voided his one-year $9 million contract due to his medical issues. I can’t see Green making that kind of green (sorry) this summer, especially coming back from a serious heart issue, but I wish him the best in getting his career back on track and overcoming his setback. It’s hard to gauge what the market price for him will be, but if he’s cheap enough, I would not be surprised to see the Mavs swoop in and give him a chance to prove himself on a 1-year deal (a la Delonte West).

Tier 3 — Good rotation player

1. Grant Hill. Hill is an old man, basically the small forward version of Jason Kidd. The 39-year-old played around 28 minutes a game for the Suns this year, but had career-low numbers in basically every category. He’s still not a bad player by any stretch, but it’s clear he’s on the way out.

In particular, his body didn’t hold up great this year and that will be concerning for potential suitors. That may have been partly a function of the shortened season, but after playing 82, 81, and 80 games the previous 3 seasons, the vaunted Phoenix Suns training staff could only squeeze 49 games out of him this year.

Hill will likely get a 1-year veteran’s minimum deal, and I think he would be okay with that. There has been a lot of speculation that he will try to go wherever Steve Nash goes because they’ve grown close over the last several years and might contemplate retiring together. I don’t see the Mavs being interested — they need to focus on getting younger.

2. Matt Barnes. Barnes is a 32-year-old who made $1.9 million coming off the bench to provide energy, defense, and rebounding for the Lakers this year. He’s also well-known to Dallas fans for his part in the 2007 Golden State series and his claim in 2011 that to beat the Mavs, all you gotta do is “punk ’em” and they’ll back down.

I’m not going to lie — I’ve always thought of Barnes as a real shady, douchey character. But I would like it if the Mavs signed him. He’s very much like DeShawn Stevenson in that he’s got tattoos, he brings a certain thug quality and edginess to the team (he’s not a “milk drinker” as Carlisle would say), and he will probably be pretty cheap since the Lakers went out in bad fashion.

He’s not quite as good a perimeter defender as Stevenson and he’s merely a decent three-point shooter (around 33% for his career), but he’s a very good rebounder (5.5 a game) and could take some of the load off Shawn Marion’s shoulders.

3. Andres Nocioni. Nocioni is an interesting 32-year-old Argentine player who used to be quite awesome for the Chicago Bulls, but has seen a big drop-off in his game since injuries (mainly knee tendinitis) and team changes (to the Kings and Sixers) stalled his career. I don’t know who reported this, but there’s a perception that Rick Carlisle is a huge fan of Nocioni’s game and would be interested in acquiring him. These rumors ramped up around March of this year when Nocioni was waived, but nothing materialized.

Personally, I don’t think Nocioni has much left in the tank, but I’ve given him the benefit of the doubt by putting him in this Tier, I guess. He hasn’t had a solid year since 2008, when he averaged 11.4 ppg and 4.8 rpg on 42.7% from the field and a great 40% from three. If he can return to the player he was in Chicago, he would be an incredible addition, but that seems like a long shot and the Mavs are already trying to rehabilitate one swingman next year (Kelenna Azubuike) so I think they should and will pass.

4. Steve Novak. Novak is a three-point extraordinaire who really should thank Jeremy Lin for every penny he makes for the rest of his career. A career 43.6% three-point shooter, he inexplicably bounced around for the last few years (including brief stops in both Dallas and San Antonio) despite eye-popping numbers — like 75% three-point shooting in Dallas and 54.8% in San Antonio. It’s astounding to me that 2 of the top franchises would let a shooter like that slip away unnoticed, but it appears he just never really was given an extended opportunity as a role player.

He got that this year, and really flourished and gained publicity as a key scorer (benefiting greatly from Lin’s dribble penetration) for the Linsanity-era Knicks of February 2012. He continued to contribute and shoot the lights out for the rest of the season as he shot an unholy 47.2% from three on the year. Quite simply, this year, he was the best spot-up three-point shooter in the game, bar none.

Novak has expressed interest in returning to the Knicks this year, but he will no doubt have countless suitors as an unrestricted free agent this summer. The Knicks are also a bit limited in the type of offer they can make to Novak since they will probably try to re-sign both Lin (probably for the mid-level exception) and Landry Fields (as I noted in the shooting guard post, Fields is eligible for the Early Bird exception, which allows the Knicks to sign him for up to the mid-level exception — a figure which other teams can’t exceed — and still leave open their mid-level exception to re-sign Lin or another free agent). This would leave open the Knicks’ bi-annual exception, which would be worth around $1.98 million next season.

Exceeding that might be a little steep for the Mavs, who would probably only expect Novak to play (at most) 20 minutes and shoot threes. But you can never have too many shooters on a great team, a fact the Mavs know very well given their success in 2011 and the Spurs’ success with a similar approach this season.

In the end, I think the Mavs will only be players for the Tier 3 guys, of whom I like Barnes and Novak the most. There are any number of unforeseeable trades and draft picks that could also yield a quality small forward, but those possibilities will become clearer as the summer moves forward.

Once again, thanks for reading for this long and I hope you enjoyed it. My post on power forwards should be forthcoming within the next few days.

Why I am rooting for the Spurs

There’s a first time for everything. And from the first time I laid eyes on the San Antonio Spurs, I hated them. Everything about them. It was Game 4 of the 2003 Western Conference Finals. I distinctly remember sitting in those nosebleed seats 45 minutes before the game watching Tim Duncan shoot free throws, and directing as much sports-hate as I could his way. It didn’t work. The Mavs would lose that game 102-95 and the series, in part due to Dirk’s high ankle sprain, but also because the Spurs could do no wrong.

Just think of their history these past 15 years. David Robinson got injured in the 1997 season, enabling an otherwise good team to tank and end up with a 20-62 record, which landed them No. 1 pick Tim Duncan. They dominated the ’99 lockout-shortened season and faced the 8th-seeded Knicks in the Finals, the first and only 8 seed to make it to the NBA Finals. They drafted two future Hall-of-Famers — and two of the greatest international players ever — in Parker and Ginobili with the 28th and 57th overall picks, forming a core that has remained elite for an unheard-of 10 straight seasons. The Spurs got past the Phoenix Suns in the second round of the 2007 NBA playoffs after the league suspended Boris Diaw and Amar’e Stoudemire for 2 games for leaving the bench during an altercation. The Spurs rolled on to the NBA Finals and swept the lowly Cleveland Cavaliers. Hell, even when the Spurs lost, they did so in spectacular fashion — on a ridiculous Derek Fisher shot with 0.4 seconds left in Game 5 of the 2004 Western Conference second round (after Tim Duncan had just hit an incredibly falling-down 2 to give the Spurs a lead) and in an epic 2006 Western Conference second round series to Dallas in a Game 7 (that went to overtime courtesy of the greatest clutch shot Dirk has ever hit, bar none — that beautiful and-one lay-up straight up the middle over the outstretched arms of Manu Ginobili).

Spurs fans may complain, but these were all ridiculous strokes of good luck that contributed immensely to their “perfect storm” from 2003 to 2007. As a Mavs fan, this period (with the exception of that ’06 series) was torturous to watch. We could be just as good as the Spurs in the regular season, sometimes even better, yet it wouldn’t matter come playoff time. Nothing seemed to faze them and any playoff disappointment was quickly resolved the next year with a title.  No heartbreaking collapses, no referee conspiracies, no accusations of softness.

They always had the defense, the coaching, the superstars, and the knowledge they were our “big brother.” Seemingly random players would, when inserted into their lineup, thrive, contribute, and deliver for them time after time (examples: Stephen Jackson, Steve Kerr, Devin Brown, Beno Udrih, Brent Barry, Robert Horry, Michael Finley). And they were always there to spoil the party, whether it be the Mavs’ or the Suns’ or the Jazz’s. And top of it all, they were boring as hell.

So as you can see, plenty of reasons to hate the Spurs. And I did. I also hated them for Duncan’s blank facial expressions and general monotony, Popovich’s curtness and generally douchey vibe, Ginobili’s frustratingly ridiculous skill and smoothness, and Parker’s relationship with Eva Longoria (back when she was fine).

But I don’t hate them near as much anymore. Don’t get me wrong — when the Mavs are playing them, it’s on…always. That will never change. But I just don’t link these Spurs to the ones of that era, the ones that I despised and always rooted against. I don’t know what changed. Maybe it’s just because the Mavs won a title last year and the Spurs were swept in the first round (poetic since the reverse happened in 2007). Maybe it’s because Pop changed their sleep-inducing offense to something sexier. It could also be that in the new era of super-teams, there are tons of teams more repulsive and hate-worthy than the Spurs (i.e. Lakers and Heat mainly, but you could argue for others), who don’t pose and preen in front of cameras, are almost never a top media story, and just don’t have obnoxious personalities.

More than anything, I’ve realized how similar we are to the Spurs — we both share an intelligent front office (most of the time, at least), a great coach, an unselfish approach to playing, and a top-5 power forward to ever play basketball. They’ve just been a lot smarter for a lot longer, on top of being a lot luckier.

It might sound sacrilegious, but in these playoffs, I’ve been rooting for the Spurs. After so many years of hating them as a Mavs fan, I’ve now found it impossible, as a basketball fan, to not admire them. Their selfless passing, always-reliable three-point shooting, great development of role players, savvy coaching — everything is just textbook-perfect fundamental basketball. Tim Duncan looked old, immobile, and in need of retirement as few as 2 years ago, and here he is dominating in the post, schooling young bucks like Blake Griffin, and leading his team their best run ever. Tony Parker, probably the most underrated NBA point guard ever, is destroying teams in the pick-and-roll, in transition, in the mid-range game, in the paint…basically everywhere. Ginobili, with that hilarious bald spot now, is still making great passes, flopping around on defense, and playing great off the bench. And Popovich is still in charge of it all, getting his team to come back from a 20+ point deficit yesterday and inventing the Disturb-a-DeAndre (based on the Hack-a-Shaq) at the same time.

If the Spurs win it all this year, it won’t be because they played an Eastern Conference pussy team or won it in a down year or benefited from some crazy blessing from the basketball gods. It will be because they are the best team and, in fact, one of the most dominant in a long time. They’ve had to overcome struggle and pain the last few years, getting bounced by the Suns in 2010 and by the 8th-seeded Grizz last year, not knowing if their core would break up. And they have been written off or overlooked all year when, really, they had been quietly preparing and transforming just for this time, when they could show the world their legitimacy (sounds eerily familiar). As a fan of the 2011 champion Dallas Mavericks, I can respect their story. Because we’ve gone through it.

These Spurs are different. But they’re still not flashy. They’re not the tank-to-get-rich Thunder, the trade-to-get-rich Lakers, or the sign-to-get-rich Heat (a vast oversimplification, of course, but they are the 3 teams I’m rooting against the most).

And they’re not the 2003-2007 Spurs either. And that means I can’t hate them nearly as much. In fact, I’m rooting for them to win it all this year. There truly is a first time for everything.

Simmons on the Mavs

Grantland’s Bill Simmons, in his most recent column, had a lot of things to say about the Mavs’ season, failed title defense, and free agency approach.

Two schools of thought: (a) the only thing that matters is winning a title, and (b) part of winning a title is defending that title. I believe the latter, which is why I remain lukewarm on the ’83 Sixers as an All-Time Greatest Team (they got bounced the following year in a humiliating Round 1 loss to New Jersey), and why I love the ’86 Celtics so much (they were banged up the following spring and could have rolled over, but they didn’t). Dallas’s willingness to toss away their title defense for cap space (and the “chance” at Dwight Howard and Deron Williams) always seemed a little too clever, as well as a massive underestimation of everything Chandler did on and off the court.1

What rarely gets mentioned here: Had they convinced Chandler to take a little less to stay, they could have pursued Deron Williams this summer (with Dirk and Chandler as the bait) and maybe even used Chandler as trade bait for a sign-and-trade for Howard (either in February or this summer, which wouldn’t have been any more callous than how they treated Chandler, anyway). And they could have actually defended their title.

Here’s where a Mavs fan might say, “I don’t care, we won the title.” Yeah, but you also won the “One of the Worst Title Defenses Ever” title. In the Shot Clock Era, only two defending champs missed the playoffs: the ’99 Bulls (no MJ or Pippen) and ’70 Celtics (no Russell or Sam Jones), but since both teams were rebuilding, you can’t totally blame them. Four other defending champs were bounced in Round 1: the 1981Lakers (lost a best-of-three miniseries to Moses Malone’s Rockets), 1984 Sixers (lost a five-gamer to Micheal Ray’s Nets), 2007 Heat (swept by Chicago) and 2012 Mavs (swept by Oklahoma City). That’s a short list. The Mavs outsmarted themselves; heck, they couldn’t even complain about Lamar Odom as he stole money from them for four straight months, because Odom’s agent (Jeff Schwartz) represents Williams as well.

And by the way … why are we so convinced that NBA free agents are so desperate to play in Dallas again? Because they want to play with Nowitzki … who’s about to turn 34 and cross the 45,000-minute career barrier? Because they want to play for Cuban … who didn’t take care of Nash in 2004 or Chandler in 2011 when both guys wanted to stay? You don’t think players around the league noticed how Cuban handled Chandler’s situation? Even if we’ve learned not to count out Cubes (especially when things look bleak), I find it hard to believe that he wouldn’t grab a do-over for the last 11 months.

These are some interesting opinions, and I can’t say I disagree with all of them. I do have a few major points of disagreement:

1. Bringing Chandler back would not have won us a title. I think this is a relatively uncontroversial thing to say, since it was painfully clear by the end exactly how slow, unathletic, and offensively-challenged the 2012Mavericks were. Even if Chandler were back, Dirk would still have been out of shape at the start of the season.Jason Kidd would still have been old and turnover-prone. James Harden would still have been able to knife through the Mavs perimeter defenders like he did in Game 4. This season, like last year, was a season of bounces. Only this year, like Dirk said, every break went the other way. Last-second shots, big comebacks by opposing teams, it all happened. As much as I love Chandler’s game, I can’t believe that bringing him back would have changed everything.

I applaud Cuban for having the audacity to do what he thought was best for the long-term. Bringing back a title team is easy. The fans are still on a championship high and no contract is too big for a returning championship player. But how many teams actually repeat? Simmons lauds his beloved ’86 Celtics because “they could have rolled over, but they didn’t.” That may be honorable and satisfying, and it may give you nice warm feelings at night, but that doesn’t mean anything in the long run. Does Simmons think the chance at that repeat run for the Celtics in ’87 was worth the 15 years of irrelevance (until 2007) they suffered in the post-Bird era?

I don’t think so, and buckle up, Mavs fans, because depending on what happens this summer and the next couple years, irrelevance is a real possibility. But Cuban is doing his part to prevent that, and that’s what an owner should do.

Just like the decisions to let Nash go in 2004 and trade for Kidd in 2008, the verdict won’t be decided for some time. Cuban can’t win right now, and he knows that. But he made his move anyway.

As far as our being in the running for “worst title defense ever,” I couldn’t care less. Other than Bill Simmons, no one in the world will ever feel the need to assemble a list of the worst title defenses ever, and as bad as this year was, it would have felt just as bad if we lost in Game 7 of the NBA Finals.

2. I don’t buy Simmons’ assertions that Chandler was treated poorly by the Mavs or that their declining to sign him was an underestimation of his effect on the team. In fact, if anything, the Cuban and the Mavs (especially Dirk) have excessively praised Chandler and his great defense and leadership and allowed it to become a dark cloud hanging over the team this season. The media didn’t just invent the “Chandler made the Mavs tougher” narrative out of thin air; they got it directly from Cuban.

With regard to his treatment, I listened to Simmons’ most recent B.S. Report podcast and he mentioned that he had a quite lengthy conversation with Tyson Chandler recently, where Chandler expressed some lingering disappointment with the organization’s “treatment” of him, supposedly also saying something to the effect that “the Spurs wouldn’t have treated me like that.”

Frankly, I was a little surprised and disappointed in these comments by Chandler. We all know he’s a great guy and unselfish teammate, but statements like these make him sound petty, ungrateful, and downright clueless about the way free agency (and business in general) is conducted.

The Mavs under Mark Cuban, for as long as I can remember, have always had a sterling reputation with players and their agents. The Lamar Odom fiasco this year was a perfect example, as Cuban and Carlisle continued defend Odom and justify his inexcusable play long after the fans had lost their patience. I don’t know exactly what happened with Chandler’s situation (he mentioned them not being in contact with him), but it seems that he’s just bitter about the Mavs choosing not to pay up. He seems to have conveniently forgotten about how the Dallas picked him up and gave him a chance to resurrect his career when other teams like the Thunder wouldn’t even medically clear him to play.

In short, I think Chandler’s beef with the Mavs’ front office is just an example of some leftover bitterness, not some devastating indictment of Cuban’s dealings with free agents.

3. I’m never counting out Dirk Nowitzki. Dirk’s year, especially the beginning, was excruciating at times. But when there’s no international games in the offseason, when there’s no 9-in-12 stretches or back-to-back-to-backs, and when the number of games goes back to 82, I think you’ll see the great Dirk Nowitzki.

34, the age he will be on June 19, is not as old as it sounds. Paul Pierce is 34 right now. Tim Duncan andKevin Garnett are 36. Nowitzki depends less on athleticism, lateral movement, and defense than all of them. Pierce, Duncan, and Garnett are still playing lights-out in the playoffs, with Duncan and Garnett both looking as much as 5 years younger.

It’s mindboggling that people are willing to see these elite performances from his contemporaries, acknowledge that Dirk is currently both younger and a better player, and yet conclude that Dirk’s time of elite performances is over (cough, Barkley — I honestly don’t give a damn what Colin Cowdung says).

In the end, people are going to pile on you when you’re down. Dirk has seen and heard it time and time again, and at the end of the day, No. 41 is the least of my worries.

The Two-Guard Game

I’ll warn you now — this is an EXTREMELY long read, and I’ve been told I’m not the most entertaining writer, so unless you have an intense need to read about the Mavs’ shooting guard prospects this summer, stay away!

I’ve already covered centers and point guards, so the Mavericks‘ next position of need to examine is shooting guard. Dallas has lacked a prototypical great high-scoring shooting guard with size since the departure ofMichael Finley in 2005. To compensate, they’ve mostly relied on the bench scoring of Jason Terry and a few decent wing scorers they’ve accumulated over the years like Jerry Stackhouse, Caron Butler, and Vince Carter.

Terry has been quite consistent in his 8 years with Dallas — he always shot good percentages from the field and the free throw line, maintained an ability to get off his own shot, and embraced a big leadership role on the team despite his role as a bench player…and ran his mouth while doing it.

As has been outlined in many places, it seems pretty unlikely Terry will return. He’s a 34-year-old combo guard with a slightly oversized ego and who’s also a defensive liability at his position and highly unlikely to be worth his next contract — which Terry wants to be for six or seven years (seriously, he said this on TNT’s Inside the NBA a few nights ago). Unless he drastically compromises to take something like the mid-level exception, he’s gone.

More after the jump…

Moving forward, the Mavs need to find an impact player at this position. Point guard and center may be more glaring needs, but it’s clear that Dirk Nowitzki needs a lot of scoring help, and Terry’s looming departure doesn’t help things one bit. The 2012 free agent class doesn’t offer any superstars at 2-guard, but there are some decent starters and backups the Mavs can look at signing, not to mention some intriguing draft prospects. Even if Dallas doesn’t find their shooting guard of the future, they should be able to get someone that can help out immediately, whether that’s a starter or a bench scorer like Terry.

I’m going to divide the shooting guard class into a few sections to go over our options.

Tier 1 — Definitely a quality starter

1. Eric Gordon. Gordon is a restricted free agent this summer with a $5.1 million qualifying offer. He’s also easily the most talented and coveted shooting guard of the free agent class, when healthy. That’s a pretty big “if,” though, because he hasn’t missed less than 20 games since his rookie year in 08-09. He played 2 games this year before undergoing season-ending arthroscopic surgery, and has suffered several injuries in the past that limited his participation to 62 games in 2009 and 56 games in 2010. That could be unnerving to potential suitors, and may drive down his asking price since some of the injuries he’s suffered, particular knee injuries, have a habit of staying long-term (see: Roy, Brandon and Oden, Greg).

Still, when he’s on the court, he is in the upper echelon of shooting guards in the league (along with Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Ray Allen, James Harden, Manu Ginobili, Kevin Martin, and Joe Johnson). People gripe a lot about the quality of starting centers in the league (cough, Haywood), but it’s kind of a sad commentary on the state of the league’s shooting guards that a 23-year-old phenom who has sat most of his last 3 seasons is in the top seven or eight.

Anyways, as far as his game, he’s an undersized player (6’3), but has great shooting numbers (career 45% shooter with 37% from 3) and is a very quick, solid athlete who can finish at the bucket. The emergence of James Harden into an all-world shooting guard over the last year prevents me from saying he’s the best under-25 two-guard in the league, but it can be argued that while Harden is the superior playmaker, Gordon is the better pure scorer. He doesn’t bring much to the table defensively, but Shawn Marion serves as the Mavs’ specialist at defending talented wings. If Marion’s not around anymore, Dallas could conceivably bring in another defensive specialist who could play off the bench. Regardless, Gordon’s scoring potential would bring a whole new, exciting element to the Mavs, and Gordon has proven that he can play with a high-scoring big before — he played withBlake Griffin in the 2010 season and both averaged 20+ ppg (granted, the team was pretty dreadful).

Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem like Gordon is going to be available even if the Mavs are interested. The Hornetswill most probably match any offer he gets even if that means a max contract. New Orleans has plenty of cap space, with only about $37 million tied up in contracts, and they could potentially use the amnesty provision on Emeka Okafor’s mammoth contract (he is due to make $13.5 million this year and $14.5 million next year). Additionally, the Hornets were just bought by Saints owner Tom Benson and it would make sense that he would aggressively push to retain the Hornets’ young superstar. They are really trying to perform a full-scale makeover of the team (complete with new name and all), and need an identifiable star to recoup some of the energy that left with Chris Paul.

2. Ray Allen. I’ll be honest — this is the guy I want. Allen is, by any calculation, one of the best two-guards of the post-Jordan generation and an all-time great shooter. He also posted a career-high in three-point percentage this year (an outstanding 45.3%) and had a pretty great year for a 36-year-old (14.2 ppg in 34 minutes), but was somewhat of an afterthought on the Celtics due to some injuries and the emergence of defensive ace/starterAvery Bradley at the end of the year.

Allen’s game is beautiful to watch, a collection of perfect cuts and precise maneuvers through a maze of screens. He doesn’t seem overly quick, but he has mastered the arts of using fakes, sharp angles, and subtle arm-shoves to get open looks. This style of play is most often likened to Reggie Miller and Rip Hamilton but, in my opinion, Allen is better than both. His textbook jump shot is, to borrow a Kobe Bryant quote, “like water” — a smooth, effortless motion with no hitches and the same quick release every time.

He’s going to turn 37 in July, but his intense dedication to maintaining his health and physical fitness is well-documented and should alleviate concerns of his body breaking down (Allen easily would be in the top 1% if you were to rank the fittest NBA players). Over the last five seasons, this was the only year that Allen missed more than 9 games, suggesting that his injury troubles were more of an aberration than the norm. He’s also a tremendously reliable player and consummate professional — you know that he will work tirelessly to be the best player he can, as evidenced by his legendary shooting and training regimen. Quite frankly, even if his athleticism and speed decline significantly, he would still be a useful player to have — he’s a knockdown three-point shooter whose game relies nearly entirely on smart off-ball movement and spot-up shooting, skills that he would likely still have at 41, let alone 37.

I can’t project a specific figure, but Allen will probably be offered two or three-year deals ranging from the mid-level exception (about $5 million) to $10 million per year at most. After playing for a top-tier contender the last few seasons, I would expect he has no interest in going to an irrelevant team, which puts Dallas in a good situation. There’s always the chance he could return to Boston and keep the Big Three intact (it seems Garnett will return at a reduced cost and Pierce is already under contract), but Celtics GM Danny Ainge could also opt to give Avery Bradley more of a chance to develop as their starter of the future.

Signing Allen would put on hold the Mavs’ plans to get a long-term answer at the position, but it would give us an immediate impact player with impeccable pedigree. If we could get him for the mid-level exception or slightly more, that would be a steal, but it would likely take more than that.

Tier 2 — Could be a quality starter or scorer off the bench, but it’s less clear

1. O.J. Mayo. Mayo is a really tough player to evaluate. There are times when I watch him make a tough shot or good play and I say, “Damn, this guy is a great shooting guard.” He has average size for a good 2-guard (6’4), but is an above-average shooter and has an impressive build with good athleticism.

But then I wonder, if this guy is so great, how come he still plays off the bench behind Tony Allen and only plays 26 minutes a game? The answer seems to lie in his role on the team. Mayo, the 3rd overall pick of the 2008 draft, finished second to Derrick Rose in the 08-09 Rookie of the Year race while averaging 18.5 ppg and not missing a game. He averaged 17.5 ppg the next season, but then saw fewer minutes (only 26 a game) with the arrival of Tony Allen in the 2010 season. His per-36-minutes scoring average has stayed pretty much consistent (at around 16 ppg), meaning that his production hasn’t really declined, just his opportunities. That has a lot to do with theGrizzlies‘ ridiculous abundance of scorers (Mike Conley, Rudy Gay, Marc Gasol, and Zach Randolph) andTony Allen’s key role as a defensive stopper for them. Of more concern is Mayo’s declining field-goal percentage and free throw shooting (45% to 41% and around 85% to 76% drops), but those could rise if he played more minutes.

Mayo is a restricted free agent with a qualifying offer of $7.4 million. Just looking at their salary situation, it’s highly unlikely Memphis will try and keep him. They have already committed roughly $60 million to their starting core of Conley, Allen, Gay, Gasol, and Randolph, and still have a few other rotation players and others to take care of. Mayo will ultimately receive somewhere between $8 million and $11 million on the open market, so it’s not happening unless they shake things up with major trades.

This means Mayo is also likely out of the Mavs’ price range, at least if signing a certain elite point guard and good center are the top priorities. Even if signing a top shooting guard were the priority, I like Mayo’s game, but if I were the Mavs, I would be very hesitant about shelling out that kind of cash to a guy who hasn’t shown himself to be a proven, dependable starter.

2. Lou Williams. Of all the 2-guards in this free agent class, Williams is probably the most like Jason Terry, only he’s far quicker and more athletic. He’s not as great a shooter (few are), but he is similar in his height (only 6’2), highly productive bench scoring (he led the Sixers in scoring off the bench this year), and happy trigger finger. Williams came into the league as a second-round selection out of high school in 2005 and has exhibited steady improvement every year since.

He was paid $5.9 million this year and has a player option for $6.4 million next year. Personally, I think that rate is about what it should be, but I’ve got a feeling he thinks he’s worth more than that (like Terry, again) and will opt out to test the open market. The Sixers still should be one of the favorites to sign him. He’s still only 25 and has showed the ability to improve every year, and they really need his scoring punch in the backcourt since Iguodala isn’t that type of player and Evan Turner’s development has been slow.

For the Mavs, though, I think they’ll pass and try to find a more traditional, bigger starting shooting guard.

3. Nick Young. Young is a solid young (yes, I did) 6’6 scorer with awkward hair, a career 18.0 per-36-minutes scoring average, and a Jason-Terry-sized case of “irrational confidence” syndrome. He played the last six years of his career for the Washington School of Boneheadedness and Wizardry (alongside star pupils Gilbert Arenasand JaVale McGee) before being sent to the Clippers in a trade in March this season. His minutes went down to 23.5 after the trade, but he’s served as a decent scorer off the bench to back up Caron Butler and actually had a huge impact making threes against the Grizzlies in Round 1, especially in that magnificent comeback in Game 1.

The concern with Young is his tendency to take poor shots, a trait that clashes heavily with the Mavs’ unselfish ball-movement offense. Still, if that could be addressed, he’s not a bad shooter from the field (43%) or from 3 (38%), and he’s averaged around 16 or 17 ppg as a starter in the past. There’s probably not much room for ascension into an All-Star or anything since he’s already 26, but merely replicating those numbers would really be an upgrade for Dallas.

Young made a little more than $3.5 million this year and the Clippers will be around $10 million under the cap once Mo Williams picks up his $8.5 million option, so a return is entirely possible. Given the dearth of good shooting guards in the league, though, I think his price range would be between $5 to $7 million. That’s not outrageous, but it would surprise me to see the Mavs outbid another more desperate team.

4. Jamal Crawford. Yet another all-time “irrational confidence” guy (with Terry, Williams, Young, Crawford, andJ.R. Smith — who I’ll get to later — this draft is well-stocked for teams looking for irrational confidence). Crawford is a bench scorer in the same mold as Terry, but as weird as it may sound, he’s far less efficient and far more streaky — something that bears out in his statistics of 40.8% shooting from the field and 34% 3-point shooting. A typical Crawford offensive possession involves tons of dribbling, more dribbling, a glance at the shot clock, more dribbling, and then an off-balance contested 20-footer. In fact, it’s really a testament to his talent that he has the shooting percentages he does.

He’s already announced that he will opt out of his current contract, which would keep him in Portland for $5.2 million next year, which may not be that smart even though there’s always the chance some dumb team throws him some cash. Regardless, I don’t see the Mavs trying to acquire him — he’s 32, offers nothing defensively, and won’t fit the offense.

Tier 3 — The Wild Card

Kelenna Azubuike. Dallas acquired Azubuike in late March and assigned him to the Texas Legends to get some playing experience as he’s just reviving his career after suffering a torn patella tendon in late 2009. Most people, including most Mavs fans, don’t really know who this funky-named guy is, but before his injury troubles he was really a very productive player, averaging around 14 ppg on 46% shooting from the field and nearly 45% from three while pulling down almost 5 rebounds a game as well.

The Mavs signed him for about $250,000 this year with a $900,000 team option to keep him next year, which will assuredly be picked up. This is another example of the Mavs’ recent “moneyball” approach in finding cheap, talented, and potentially highly-productive free agents, a strategy which also yielded Brandan Wright this past year. If Azubuike can return to something close to his 2009 form, he could be an outstanding bargain, just as Wright is currently.

Tier 4 — Average or below-average starter / Decent rotation player

1. Vince Carter. We saw this movie this year and it wasn’t good. That shouldn’t have been much of a surprise since Carter (aka Half-Man-Half-Embarrassing) hasn’t been a 20 ppg scorer any of the last 4 years and hasn’t been a truly superstar-level player since the 06-07 season. At points in the year, his three-point shooting and occasional post play helped out, but it wasn’t nearly consistent enough to seal his return.

Carter signed a three-year deal in December for the mini-midlevel exception (about $3 million), but only the first two were partially guaranteed so the Mavs could part ways with him. Unless there is a clearly better option, the Mavs could seriously consider bringing back Carter — at the very least, he gives them good size and floor spacing and he’s been integrated into their system for a year.

Side note — This is what I see when I picture Vince’s tenure as a Mav: Vince, with his now-trademark headband, is on the high block, palming the ball out behind him. He uses a jab, then puts his head down and drives hard, cradling the ball with his wrist and rocking it like Michael Jordan did in the dunk contest. He jumps in the air and covers a lot of ground horizontally, waiting entirely too long to release the lay-up attempt. He’s basically on the ground by the time he lets go and it misses…badly. Sadly, it’s not 2001 anymore. No revving up the engines this time.

2. DeShawn Stevenson. I’d really like to see this happen. D-Steve was a fan favorite for his tough, physical defense, edginess, and good three-point shooting. He went to New Jersey on a 1-year $2.5 million deal but was pretty underwhelming this year. Hopefully, he realizes he can come back and revive his career in Dallas (along with another Nets player). He would take a lot of defensive pressure off Shawn Marion, restore the toughness that was sorely lacking this year, and energize the fans. Given his poor year, also, the Mavs might be able to get him back on a cheap one-year deal.

3. J.R. Smith. The last of the irrational confidence guys. Smith is an explosive scorer when he gets going, with unlimited range, very good athleticism, and sort of a streetball mentality to the game. He was rumored to want a bigger contract (rather than opting in with the Knicks for $2.5 million next year), but seems to be potentially reconsidering. The Mavs likely won’t want him anyways — Cuban was open about his lack of interest in signing Smith earlier this year.

4. C.J. Miles. There was some talk of this because he and Deron Williams were teammates in Utah and he’s from Dallas. I’m not sure why that’s exciting people (there was even an article about it on ESPNDallas) because he’s a rather average player. Don’t see the Mavs being interested.

5. Shannon Brown. Brown played an increased role this year, averaging 11 ppg in 24 minutes for the Suns. He’s steadily improved his 3-point shooting (36% this year), but remains just a good change-of-pace player off the bench. He made $3.5 million this year and is probably looking for a long-term deal, which I doubt the Mavs want to give him.

6. Marco Belinelli. I really like Belinelli’s game. He’s a great three-point shooter (around 40%) and has contributed more each year, but ultimately he’s a 26-year-old spot-up shooter with a cool name. Belinelli made $3.4 million this year and is presumably looking for a long-term deal with a pay raise, so he probably won’t end up in Dallas.

7. Landry Fields. Fields is a good young player with a very well-rounded game. He’s not really much of a pure scorer, but he plays defense, rebounds, drives, and shoots pretty well, and has plenty of room to grow in all facets. Fields is a restricted free agent, but due to the Gilbert Arenas provision of the CBA, other teams can’t offer him more than the mid-level exception ($5 million). Meanwhile, he is also eligible for the Early Bird exception, which allows the Knicks to sign him and still have their mid-level exception free to sign another free agent (likeSteve Nash). It’s a virtual lock he’ll be a Knick next year.

8. Mickael Pietrus. If the Mavs can’t get Stevenson, this is another great option as a rotation player (some hardcore Mavs fans might remember him for being on the hated 2007 Golden State Warriors). Pietrus only got paid $1.2 million this year, but he provided so much more value than that. His numbers really don’t impress (7 ppg in 22 minutes on 38.5% shooting and 33.5% from three) but he is a long, lanky body that provides consistently good perimeter defense, serviceable three-point shooting, and great effort. Unfortunately, since most people have noticed this and Doc Rivers has praised him frequently, he’s probably in line for a good raise. Depending on the cost, of course, the Mavs should try and make him a realistic option.

Tier 5 — Definitely not a starter, but could crack the rotation

1. Marquis Daniels. This former Mavs draftee has really seen his minutes and production go down in recent years. He doesn’t have any real specific skill (like perimeter defense or shooting) so it’s hard to see why the Mavs would want to bring him in, even on a minimum deal.

2. Sasha Pavlovic.The Mavs actually signed Pavlovic to a short-term deal before the 2011 playoffs and he suited up for 10 games, shooting 44% from three in about 16 minutes a game. His numbers this year aren’t very impressive, but the Celtics didn’t play him much this year (since Allen and Bradley took most of the minutes) and I think he can still be a capable rotation player.

3. Jodie Meeks. Meeks is a young player who’s contributed some scoring off the bench for the Sixers, a team that is extremely deep on backcourt scoring (with Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Andre Iguodala, and Lou Williams). He could be a cheap bench option for another team, but his game seems too similar to that of Roddy Beaubois’ for the Mavs to have interest.

4. Josh Howard. Dallas traded Howard to Washington in 2010 in an extremely one-sided deal that netted Caron Butler, DeShawn Stevenson, and Brendan Haywood. Now that Howard’s game has fallen off a cliff, it’s unlikely the Mavs will show any inclination of dealing with the off-court baggage and issues that caused them to trade him in the first place.

5. Danny Green. Green’s career has really been resurrected by the Spurs this year as he’s carved out a niche as an excellent three-point shooter, solid defender, and generally active body. Unfortunately, like many of the Spurs’ great role players, I don’t think he would function the same way if you plugged him into a different situation. That said, it’d be surprising if Green returned to San Antonio. He only made around $900,000 this year and some team will probably offer him a better deal elsewhere.

6. Gerald Green. Green is a guy who broke out for the Nets this year after an initially underwhelming NBA career (partially in Dallas) followed by stints in Russia, China, and the D-League. He averaged 13 ppg in 25 minutes. He has really good size and decent shooting numbers, but his ceiling is likely just a decent rotation player. Someone may pay him prematurely this summer, but he only played 31 games this year and has a lot to prove as far as being a reliable contributor.

That about covers all the options worth talking about (cough, not Jerry Stackhouse) at shooting guard for 2012. There are plenty of interesting potential draft choices — like Brad Beal, Jeremy Lamb, Austin Rivers, etc. — but I will cover these in the weeks closer to the draft.

If you actually stayed to read this long, kudos and I hope you enjoyed it. ‘Til next time.

Point Guard Shopping

There was some good discussion and feedback after my post on the center market, so I thought I’d move on and look at the free agency picture for the Mavs when it comes to point guards.

There are many options for the Mavs here, with Jason Kidd and Delonte West entering unrestricted free agency this summer (and potentially not returning), so there will inevitably be some interesting moves here, unlike at center, where the Mavs could conceivably return the same rotation (if they keep Haywood and Mahinmi).

There are 5 starting point guard options that I see (I will address backups briefly at the end).

Starters

1. Deron Williams. The big kahuna. Obviously, Williams is the lone superstar and gem of the 2012 free agent class, and for good reason. People forget, but it was only a couple years ago that D-Will was considered the best point guard in the game, even ahead of Chris Paul (mainly due to Paul’s injury concerns at the time). In fact, you could argue that even as soon as last April, Williams had a decent grip on that title, but Paul’s impressive play against the Lakers in the first round catapulted him into the top slot in people’s minds.

In any case, Williams is an elite all-around point guard. He is an exceptional ball-handler, with a tight handle and solid control of the ball at all times. He’s not as quick as Ty Lawson and Tony Parker, but much like Chris Paul, he has a devastating crossover (YouTube has plenty of clips) and has the ability to get in the lane for lay-ups and floaters. The long-range shot is there, and he can often times be very streaky, as evidenced by his 57-point outburst this year, and similar scoring feats in the past. He’s also just a really big, strong body at point guard, in the mold of a young Jason Kidd.

More after the jump…

If the Mavs got Williams, it has been strongly suggested that Kidd would stick around and play as a backup. This is an intriguing idea, since it was pretty clear this year that Kidd is unable to contribute greatly for 30+ minutes a game on most nights and the Mavs struggled mightily to create good half-court flow without him (and even with him, frankly). Kidd’s play, in general, was also considerably poorer due to astronomically high turnover rates, questionable decision-making, and lack of scoring punch — his 3-point shot wasn’t on for most of the year, and outside of that, he hasn’t got much these days.

Williams would solve many of these problems — he is a far more accomplished scorer and penetrator and would be a great pick-and-pop partner of Dirk Nowitzki’s. He seems like a perfect fit for Rick Carlisle’s flow offense, and his size and athleticism would help the Mavs be competitive against the new era of uber-athletic point guards (Westbrook, Rondo, Parker, Rose, etc.).

Despite some rhetorical downplaying by Cuban, it seems Donnie Nelson is very locked in on getting D-Will to the Metroplex. At only 27, he would be the perfect guy to take the “keys” from Dirk Nowitzki and help transition into the next era of the Mavericks. Getting him could also attract plenty of other top-flight free agents to Dallas for years to come (cough, Dwight Howard), and would conceivably revive the Mavs’ offense from its pathetic 2012 state. Williams would automatically be the best non-Dirk-Nowitzki Mavs player since Steve Nash left, and is considerably better than any other point guard on the market.

I’m not sure what to make of the chances of getting him. Some sources claim we have no better than a 50-50 shot while others suggest he is “leaning towards” Dallas. I would honestly not be shocked either way. Some potential things that could throw a wrench into the Mavs’ plans: 1) The Top-3 pick. If the Nets do land a top-3 pick (especially the top pick, which would be Anthony Davis), that could potentially put pressure on D-Will to stay, and 2) If the Dwight Howard trade saga somehow escalates again, and Orlando decides to give in and trade Dwight to the Nets (by all indications, his top choice). These 2 issues could be interrelated — if the Nets get a top 3 pick, they could potentially package that with Brook Lopez and Marshon Brooks to send in return for Howard. In the end, though, there’s a lot of things that have to happen before we can have a clearer picture. As of today, I still think the Mavs are his best option if he really cares about winning.

2. Steve Nash. This is being widely touted as the front office’s “Plan B” if they can’t land Williams. It would obviously make for an incredible story — despite having left eight years ago, he and Dirk Nowitzki are still linked more than any other two former teammates I can think of.

At 38, Nash has plenty of game still left in the tank. His minutes were reduced to a shade under 32 this season and his scoring has slightly dipped, but he remains a top-flight assist man (10.7 per game) and a world-class shooter (he shot a blistering 53.2% from the field — a tie for his career high — and 39% from 3 this year). Side note: I strongly believe that Nash is the greatest all-around shooter in the history of the game (3’s, free throws, from every spot on the floor), and spatial analytics seem to back this up. Not related, but it was really interesting to me, and was brought up at the Sloan Conference.

Like Williams, Nash would bring an immediate spark to the Mavs’ half-court offense. He is an absolute “basketball maestro” (as Erik Spoelstra put it) and one of the great pick-and-roll passers of all time — he’s worked wonders over the last few years with overall inferior talent. Bring his skill set to Carlisle’s system of floor spacing and ball movement, and the offense would presumably hum. He’s also much more of an offensive threat than Jason Kidd as he is a much craftier dribbler in traffic. He also has a variety of cool runners and is pretty good (for a sub-par athlete at point guard these days) at finishing tough lay-ups. Unlike Kidd, though, he can’t play good one-on-one defense (or much defense at all, for that matter) and isn’t as strong or as good a rebounder, so we would have to bring in a good defensive guard. Kidd is pretty much gone if we get Nash — highly unlikely that Donnie Nelson wants two 38+-year-old point guards on the team.

If the Mavs got Nash, a quality backup would be an absolute must. There were rumors recently that the Suns are going after Nash with a 2-year $20 million dollar deal. It’s flabbergasting to me that the Suns don’t want to move on and get their rebuilding project started, but it’s probably irrelevant since I don’t think Nash will return unless they can acquire a major free agent — and he’s said as much. That said, I think Nash might be worth $10 million per-year for 2 years. He has been freakishly dedicated to taking care of his body for the past several years (healthy eating, sleep, rest, etc.) and I can see him maintaining his current level for the next couple years (especially with the Mavs’ well-known use of cryotherapy).

$10 million might sound like a lot, but that’s about $9 less than what Deron Williams would demand, so we would presumably have the money to re-sign Delonte West or another quality backup, or even bring Jason Terry back (some of the names available: Kirk Hinrich, Andre Miller, Leandro Barbosa, Jonny Flynn, Keyon Dooling,Baron Davis, John Lucas, Gilbert Arenas, Jannero Pargo, Jamaal Tinsley).

3. Goran Dragic. Dragic is the most intriguing point guard on the market in terms of potential. Nash’s former backup in Phoenix, he really burst out onto scene in the Suns’ sweep of the Spurs in 2010. Based on his very good play as a starter in Houston during Kyle Lowry’s absence this year, he will undoubtedly get many offers from teams needing a starter.

And for good reason. I recently watched some tape of Dragic this year, and I came away amazed at how tremendously skilled he is. He is just so smooth with his dribbling, uses his physical abilities very well, and displays very good playmaking ability — reminds me quite a bit of a smaller Manu Ginobili.

Dragic is an excellent penetrator and finisher in the lane (kind of like a JJ Barea), has a wide range of creative dribbles (like the Euro-step, behind-the-back, etc.), and can force steals with his active hands and feet on defense. The one possible knock on him is his inconsistent jump shot (he only shot 33.7% from 3 this year), but he still shoots a respectable 46% from the floor and upped his free throw percentage to 80.5%.

He, to me, looks like a classic late bloomer like his former mentor Steve Nash. Admittedly he is not in the mold of a traditional pass-first point guard, but this season he showed improved offensive vision and floor leadership for the Rockets. If he were thrust into the role of starting point guard for the Mavs, I would expect continued development of these qualities, and maybe even evolution into an All-Star-caliber player. Dragic is only 26 and he has a truly exceptional variety of skills, so there is great upside.

I didn’t read this anywhere, but I would expect Dragic to command anywhere from $8-10 million a year on the open market. In my opinion, he would be worth that investment for the Mavs if Deron Williams goes elsewhere. I’m not sure whether I would take him over Nash, but he is a good long-term option.

4. Jeremy Lin. You knew this name would be here. I’ll admit, I’m a pretty big Jeremy Lin fan. His was one of the greatest rags-to-riches sports stories I can remember, and he just seems like a grounded, nice dude. The Knicksare over the salary cap, so the most they can offer Lin is the mid-level exception, which is around $5 million. Unless New York signs Steve Nash (for more than the minimum), I think it’s pretty likely that Lin returns to the Garden, but I’ll talk about him anyways.

Pretty much everyone knows about the great run he had with the Knicks in February. During that stretch, he was their primary offensive scorer and he put up some pretty crazy numbers (something like 25 ppg and 11 assists). That obviously didn’t sustain, partly due to drastic changes in the offense after Carmelo Anthony’s return and the resignation of Mike D’Antoni. Some of Lin’s detractors point to this as proof that he is nothing more than a “system point guard.” That isn’t entirely wrong — D’Antoni is famous for giving his point guards more freedom than most, and that team really depended heavily on Lin to take shot attempts since heavy minutes were being doled out to journeymen and non-offensive-playmakers (Bill Walker, Jared Jeffries, Tyson Chandler, etc.).

That isn’t happening in Dallas. Lin would be expected to transform into more of a pass-first player, an area where he showed some improvement toward the end of the year. Even more generally, though, he just needs to become a more consistent, reliable performer. He has difficulty dealing with intense on-ball pressure (as was exposed in that national TV loss to Miami), sometimes loses control on his drives, and loses track defensively.

For these weaknesses, though, he remains capable of incredible plays — finishes at the rim, passes, etc — and tremendous energy and intangibles. The way he lifted that rather rag-tag Knicks outfit to several unbelievable wins was truly unique and inspiring. Lin has had to scrap and claw for every NBA opportunity he’s had and he seems to be a very high-character, humble, and hardworking teammate, something that exuded great positive energy and had a big impact on changing the Knicks’ culture this season.

5. Chauncey Billups. Mr. Big Shot himself is the last viable starting point guard option I see for the Mavs in 2012. I’ve always been a huge Billups fan, back from his days with that lovable 2004 Pistons team. Career-wise, he is one of the four most accomplished point guards of the last ten years (along with Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, and Tony Parker) and has a long resume of playoff success, clutch performances and, well, big shots. Unfortunately, he’s also 35 years old and coming off an ACL tear in March that ended his season for the Clippers.

Assuming he recovers fully and in time for the start of the 2012 season, I think Billups will still be a quality starter. His shooting numbers were kind of janky this year, but probably mainly due to the fact that he only played 20 games and it was a weird lockout year in which the Clips played him at two-guard alongside Chris Paul for a while. I would expect his three-point FG percentage to return to around 40% and his field-goal percentage to rise as well (it was a horrific 36% this year). Aside from being a great shooter, Billups is a good floor general, physically strong defender, and savvy veteran presence in the locker room. He also has a lot of familiarity with Rick Carlisle, having played for him back when Carlisle coached the Pistons in 2002. In fact, it was under Carlisle that Billups became a top-shelf point guard in the league.

Given that he is coming off an ACL tear, I think most teams will be wary to offer him big money or a long contract. It’s pretty well-known, also, that Billups has no interest in playing for non-contending teams, so it’s possible he could be looking for a deal around the mid-level exception or slightly more. Unless Williams, Dragic, and Nash are all off the table this summer (and the free agency period is a total disaster), I can’t see the Mavs trying to go after Billups. He’s a player that provides a degree of stability and experience at point guard, but not someone who would totally revamp the Mavs’ offense immediately. Signing him would also not address the goals of getting younger and more athletic in the backcourt, a real need this summer. Add in the fact that he’s coming off an ACL tear, and it seems pretty unlikely the Mavs will sign Billups.

6. Other Randoms That Could Technically Be Somebody’s Starter but not the Mavs

– Raymond Felton. Pretty unexciting player who somehow made $7.6 million last year despite shooting 40.7% from the field and 30.5% from 3. He did, however, manage to light up the Mavs from 3 that one game whenLaMarcus Aldridge made the game-winner…

– Jameer Nelson. He has a player option this season for $7.8 million and he deserves to be slapped if he actually doesn’t pick that up.

– Ramon Sessions. Not really what we’re looking for, and he has a player option for $4.6 million this season that he should pick up.

– Baron Davis. Too old. Maybe as a backup, but even that’s pushing it.

– George Hill. Very solid role player, but he’s a restricted free agent with a $3.1 million qualifying offer. Probably going back to Indiana.

– Leandro Barbosa. Made $7.6 million this year, so he would be out of our price range. But he has excellent penetration abilities, and would be a great JJ-Barea-like player for the Mavs.

– Mo Williams. Has an $8.5 million player option that he should definitely pick up. But even otherwise, the Mavs wouldn’t want him.

Backups (I am defining “backup” to mean the primary backup who could play 20-25 minutes a game)

– Jason Kidd. The favorite for this job, assuming D-Will lands in Dallas.

– Delonte West. He had great value this season as he played both guard slots on a minimum contract, and produced very well despite missing 20+ games with a dislocated finger. Teams will probably offer him somewhere between $3-5 million a year to be a backup. Seems unlikely to return if the Mavs sign Deron Williams, but could be a legitimate possibility otherwise. He brings great defensive toughness, an ability to create off the dribble and finish in the lane, and hit outside shots.

– Kirk Hinrich. He played behind Jeff Teague in Atlanta this year and scored 6.6 ppg on 41% shooting (he shot 34.6% from 3). He made an obscene $8 million this past season for that production, but I think he should be available for a lot less this year. Unfortunately, his production overall seems to be trending downwards and he’s 31, so he may not be worth bringing in.

– Andre Miller. Would be a very solid backup, in my opinion, behind either Williams or Dragic. He brings a great veteran presence, never misses a game, is a reliable 45% shooter, and averaged the same number of assists despite reduced minutes this season.

– John Lucas. A career benchwarmer who gave the Bulls solid minutes during Derrick Rose’s absence this year. He shot well from 3 (39.3%), but he’s not that young (29) and doesn’t seem to be that much of a playmaker.

– Derek Fisher. Too old to really do much but shoot spot-up jump shots for a team that has plenty of playmakers (like the Thunder). Wouldn’t fit well in Dallas.

– Keyon Dooling. Gave the Celtics some decent minutes behind Rondo this season, and can shoot the 3, but appears limited otherwise.

– Patty Mills. He played well in limited time after being signed by the Spurs later this year, so it’s probable that he will go back to San Antonio.